* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LESLIE AL132018 10/10/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 65 65 66 69 69 70 70 60 52 44 38 37 38 41 48 51 58 V (KT) LAND 65 65 66 69 69 70 70 60 52 44 38 37 38 41 48 51 58 V (KT) LGEM 65 65 65 67 68 68 67 62 56 51 46 44 45 49 54 59 63 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 3 1 2 4 9 4 8 15 18 13 10 7 1 4 4 1 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 12 7 9 9 5 0 5 15 15 4 6 0 1 1 0 1 2 SHEAR DIR 330 260 286 9 123 191 345 311 341 8 360 18 57 191 177 304 333 SST (C) 26.2 26.2 26.3 26.3 26.1 25.5 25.0 24.6 24.8 24.3 24.5 24.8 24.9 25.1 25.5 25.7 25.7 POT. INT. (KT) 114 113 115 116 116 112 108 104 104 98 98 102 104 106 109 111 111 ADJ. POT. INT. 98 97 100 102 103 102 99 94 91 84 84 89 92 94 97 98 99 200 MB T (C) -55.6 -55.2 -54.9 -54.9 -54.8 -54.3 -54.8 -54.2 -54.3 -54.2 -54.2 -54.2 -54.3 -54.4 -54.9 -55.1 -55.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.7 0.3 0.6 1.2 1.6 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 6 6 6 6 4 2 1 2 3 4 4 5 5 5 5 700-500 MB RH 41 44 46 49 52 53 49 40 35 34 32 33 35 38 41 41 46 MODEL VTX (KT) 29 28 29 31 31 30 30 25 22 18 15 13 13 14 17 17 19 850 MB ENV VOR -11 -14 -35 -52 -50 -33 -13 5 28 36 32 21 37 45 50 38 29 200 MB DIV -41 3 16 -17 0 9 49 25 -10 -35 -15 -8 -1 8 20 14 7 700-850 TADV 1 4 7 13 9 3 7 -22 -11 -3 -2 4 14 12 14 12 14 LAND (KM) 2269 2303 2337 2352 2370 2100 1744 1380 1102 937 863 898 1001 1171 1375 1586 1808 LAT (DEG N) 28.1 28.0 27.8 28.1 28.3 29.4 30.4 30.8 30.8 30.4 29.6 28.7 27.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 42.5 42.0 41.5 40.5 39.5 36.2 31.9 27.5 24.3 22.6 22.2 23.1 24.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 7 9 13 17 19 16 11 5 4 7 9 10 10 10 11 HEAT CONTENT 1 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):170/ 9 CX,CY: 2/ -8 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 480 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 89.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 10.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -6. -8. -11. -14. -17. -20. -23. -25. -27. -28. -28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 11. 11. 10. 10. 10. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -7. -6. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -8. -13. -20. -25. -29. -29. -27. -23. -23. -19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 4. 4. 5. 5. -5. -13. -21. -27. -28. -27. -24. -17. -14. -7. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 28.1 42.5 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132018 LESLIE 10/10/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.60 3.1 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 20.6 41.0 to 7.4 0.61 1.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.6 0.0 to 147.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.6 33.3 to 3.1 0.62 1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.93 1.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 34.8 30.0 to 128.0 0.05 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.6 to -2.7 0.48 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : -7.8 -28.0 to 171.0 0.10 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 406.4 814.0 to -65.0 0.46 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 37.8 95.0 to 0.0 0.60 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.3% 13.2% 9.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.5% 5.3% 4.0% 2.2% 0.8% 2.8% 1.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.9% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.6% 6.3% 4.6% 0.8% 0.3% 0.9% 0.4% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132018 LESLIE 10/10/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132018 LESLIE 10/10/2018 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 2 3( 5) 3( 8) 4( 11) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 65 65 66 69 69 70 70 60 52 44 38 37 38 41 48 51 58 18HR AGO 65 64 65 68 68 69 69 59 51 43 37 36 37 40 47 50 57 12HR AGO 65 62 61 64 64 65 65 55 47 39 33 32 33 36 43 46 53 6HR AGO 65 59 56 55 55 56 56 46 38 30 24 23 24 27 34 37 44 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT