* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LESLIE AL132018 10/09/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 57 58 58 58 58 59 61 65 63 59 51 39 26 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 55 57 58 58 58 58 59 61 65 63 59 51 39 26 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 55 58 59 60 59 59 59 61 65 66 61 53 43 34 26 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 9 11 12 13 14 2 4 2 7 16 23 30 45 52 48 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 9 12 19 14 13 12 5 2 0 -1 11 17 10 5 7 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 300 282 270 242 256 249 200 322 287 288 263 257 308 324 340 N/A N/A SST (C) 24.1 25.0 25.0 25.3 25.8 26.2 25.9 25.7 25.3 25.1 23.9 22.5 21.8 21.4 21.6 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 99 105 105 107 111 114 112 113 111 110 101 92 86 83 84 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 87 92 92 93 96 98 98 101 102 102 93 83 76 74 74 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.4 -54.6 -54.8 -54.8 -55.0 -55.1 -54.5 -54.0 -54.3 -54.8 -54.1 -53.2 -53.3 -53.4 -54.0 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.7 0.5 0.8 0.9 0.4 0.8 0.7 0.8 0.6 1.1 1.1 1.0 0.6 0.1 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 4 4 5 5 5 5 5 6 4 1 1 1 1 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 29 30 29 30 32 42 46 54 55 53 42 37 37 40 40 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 27 28 29 29 29 30 32 33 34 32 31 29 25 20 14 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 66 62 48 29 8 3 -22 -48 -27 1 15 38 16 7 15 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 12 -25 -42 -20 -35 -26 -10 19 52 45 16 42 3 -12 -33 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 2 0 -1 -2 0 6 3 9 -10 -63 -80 -73 -58 -26 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1631 1750 1871 1977 2083 2241 2304 2226 1918 1569 1256 917 612 417 230 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 33.4 32.5 31.6 30.8 29.9 28.7 28.7 29.3 30.6 32.5 34.4 36.1 37.0 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 45.0 44.3 43.5 43.0 42.5 41.6 40.1 37.6 33.8 28.8 23.8 19.1 15.8 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 10 10 8 6 9 15 21 23 22 17 11 8 9 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):125/ 12 CX,CY: 10/ -6 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 645 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 11.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -9. -12. -15. -18. -19. -20. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 10. 9. 6. 0. -6. -12. -13. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -9. -9. -8. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 2. -0. -5. -11. -17. -25. -24. -23. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. -8. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 6. 10. 8. 4. -4. -16. -29. -42. -40. -39. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 33.4 45.0 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132018 LESLIE 10/09/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.73 3.5 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 34.0 41.0 to 7.4 0.21 0.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 147.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.9 33.3 to 3.1 0.61 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.84 1.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 37.0 30.0 to 128.0 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.0 2.6 to -2.7 0.69 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : -22.0 -28.0 to 171.0 0.03 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 462.8 814.0 to -65.0 0.40 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 50.3 95.0 to 0.0 0.47 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.4% 11.5% 8.2% 7.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.8% 3.3% 2.5% 1.1% 0.3% 1.8% 0.5% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.7% 4.9% 3.6% 2.9% 0.1% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132018 LESLIE 10/09/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132018 LESLIE 10/09/2018 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 57 58 58 58 58 59 61 65 63 59 51 39 26 DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 55 54 55 55 55 55 56 58 62 60 56 48 36 23 DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 55 52 51 51 51 51 52 54 58 56 52 44 32 19 DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 45 45 46 48 52 50 46 38 26 DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT