* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LESLIE AL132018 10/07/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 49 48 48 48 49 51 50 49 52 50 48 44 44 42 37 30 V (KT) LAND 50 49 48 48 48 49 51 50 49 52 50 48 44 44 42 37 30 V (KT) LGEM 50 50 49 49 49 51 54 54 54 54 53 51 48 45 42 37 32 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 6 1 3 7 2 12 19 21 19 26 26 30 32 14 30 33 44 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 8 5 4 5 10 9 10 0 -2 -8 0 -2 3 10 2 2 SHEAR DIR 38 94 309 302 319 235 232 237 247 243 252 250 254 283 338 335 331 SST (C) 23.7 23.9 24.3 24.2 24.2 23.9 24.5 25.5 25.6 25.5 25.4 25.1 25.0 24.6 23.9 23.4 22.7 POT. INT. (KT) 96 97 100 100 100 99 103 111 111 109 108 106 106 103 98 95 91 ADJ. POT. INT. 83 84 86 86 87 87 92 99 98 96 96 94 94 91 87 84 81 200 MB T (C) -54.6 -54.3 -54.3 -54.5 -54.4 -54.1 -54.5 -54.9 -56.0 -55.5 -55.7 -55.5 -56.2 -55.8 -54.9 -54.6 -54.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.4 1.3 0.9 0.4 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.6 0.2 0.4 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 5 5 6 5 4 2 1 0 700-500 MB RH 36 36 38 38 38 33 32 30 35 36 35 39 37 36 41 39 45 MODEL VTX (KT) 30 29 28 28 28 28 29 30 28 30 28 27 26 26 26 23 19 850 MB ENV VOR 21 15 17 26 68 67 71 47 24 18 -5 7 23 38 42 9 -6 200 MB DIV -4 -4 -20 -15 12 15 13 -7 -29 7 -16 -10 -9 15 -38 -23 -38 700-850 TADV 14 9 12 7 8 -2 -4 -10 -6 0 -7 -4 -13 -28 -50 -26 -22 LAND (KM) 1105 1152 1205 1278 1359 1588 1878 2189 2034 1815 1609 1412 1230 1071 937 854 666 LAT (DEG N) 36.8 36.5 36.2 35.8 35.4 34.2 32.6 30.9 29.6 28.9 28.7 29.2 30.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 51.8 50.6 49.5 48.2 46.9 44.0 41.0 38.0 35.4 33.3 31.1 28.7 26.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 10 11 12 14 15 14 12 10 10 11 12 12 13 13 13 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):120/ 9 CX,CY: 8/ -4 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 555 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 59.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -8. -10. -12. -14. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 7. 6. 5. 3. 1. -2. -5. -7. -8. -11. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -7. -5. -3. -2. -2. -1. -2. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. 8. 8. 8. 7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -7. -5. -8. -10. -13. -13. -14. -17. -20. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 1. 0. -1. 2. 0. -2. -6. -6. -8. -13. -20. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 36.8 51.8 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132018 LESLIE 10/07/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.60 3.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 19.4 41.0 to 7.4 0.64 2.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 147.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.6 33.3 to 3.1 0.55 1.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.70 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 35.2 30.0 to 128.0 0.05 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.0 2.6 to -2.7 0.68 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : -6.2 -28.0 to 171.0 0.11 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 403.4 814.0 to -65.0 0.47 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 36.3 95.0 to 0.0 0.62 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.4% 13.0% 9.2% 8.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.4% 3.7% 2.8% 0.6% 0.1% 1.2% 0.2% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.7% 5.6% 4.0% 2.9% 0.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132018 LESLIE 10/07/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132018 LESLIE 10/07/2018 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 50 49 48 48 48 49 51 50 49 52 50 48 44 44 42 37 30 18HR AGO 50 49 48 48 48 49 51 50 49 52 50 48 44 44 42 37 30 12HR AGO 50 47 46 46 46 47 49 48 47 50 48 46 42 42 40 35 28 6HR AGO 50 44 41 40 40 41 43 42 41 44 42 40 36 36 34 29 22 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT