* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LESLIE AL132018 10/07/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 49 47 46 46 47 48 49 47 46 43 42 36 34 34 27 24 V (KT) LAND 50 49 47 46 46 47 48 49 47 46 43 42 36 34 34 27 24 V (KT) LGEM 50 49 48 48 47 49 52 54 50 46 43 40 37 34 33 31 29 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 10 6 1 4 6 7 16 26 25 23 27 29 35 20 24 43 31 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 7 9 4 6 6 14 8 2 -3 -7 -6 -7 -1 8 8 8 SHEAR DIR 338 36 67 274 281 224 249 241 276 262 268 253 260 301 298 316 305 SST (C) 23.6 23.7 24.0 24.2 24.1 23.6 24.1 25.3 25.5 25.6 25.3 25.1 24.9 24.6 23.6 22.0 20.9 POT. INT. (KT) 95 96 98 99 99 96 100 109 110 110 108 107 106 105 99 90 86 ADJ. POT. INT. 82 83 84 85 86 84 88 96 97 97 96 95 96 95 90 83 78 200 MB T (C) -54.7 -54.7 -54.4 -54.5 -54.6 -54.2 -54.7 -55.4 -56.9 -57.3 -57.1 -56.6 -56.7 -57.4 -56.7 -54.5 -55.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 -0.2 -0.4 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 3 4 3 3 2 3 2 4 3 3 2 3 3 3 2 2 2 700-500 MB RH 37 38 39 40 40 36 32 26 25 27 28 30 33 34 38 41 38 MODEL VTX (KT) 30 29 28 27 27 27 28 30 28 26 23 22 19 16 15 12 11 850 MB ENV VOR 16 20 18 18 33 78 83 67 36 -66 -95 -82 -54 18 33 44 65 200 MB DIV 15 0 -8 -25 -17 34 25 6 -61 -62 -30 -37 -8 8 24 7 20 700-850 TADV 16 13 11 10 9 6 0 -30 -39 -27 -6 -11 -7 -2 -43 -50 -40 LAND (KM) 1045 1087 1137 1200 1269 1456 1703 1979 2238 2021 1783 1552 1336 1144 960 588 175 LAT (DEG N) 37.3 37.0 36.7 36.4 36.0 35.0 33.6 32.0 30.6 29.5 29.2 29.6 30.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 52.6 51.4 50.2 49.0 47.8 45.3 42.7 40.1 37.6 35.3 32.8 30.1 27.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 10 10 11 12 13 13 12 11 11 13 15 18 20 20 20 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 95/ 10 CX,CY: 10/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 650 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 59.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. -9. -11. -12. -14. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 7. 6. 4. 3. -0. -3. -7. -9. -10. -14. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -7. -5. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 4. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 10. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 9. 10. 10. 8. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -7. -11. -16. -18. -23. -26. -27. -30. -30. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -8. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -3. -4. -7. -8. -14. -16. -16. -23. -26. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 37.3 52.6 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132018 LESLIE 10/07/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.60 2.9 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 21.3 41.0 to 7.4 0.59 1.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 147.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.9 33.3 to 3.1 0.34 0.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.70 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 34.1 30.0 to 128.0 0.04 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.4 2.6 to -2.7 0.76 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : -7.0 -28.0 to 171.0 0.11 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 393.6 814.0 to -65.0 0.48 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 29.9 95.0 to 0.0 0.69 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.5% 11.4% 8.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.2% 2.5% 1.7% 0.3% 0.1% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.4% 4.6% 3.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132018 LESLIE 10/07/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132018 LESLIE 10/07/2018 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 50 49 47 46 46 47 48 49 47 46 43 42 36 34 34 27 24 18HR AGO 50 49 47 46 46 47 48 49 47 46 43 42 36 34 34 27 24 12HR AGO 50 47 46 45 45 46 47 48 46 45 42 41 35 33 33 26 23 6HR AGO 50 44 41 40 40 41 42 43 41 40 37 36 30 28 28 21 18 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT