* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LESLIE AL132018 10/02/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 58 62 66 70 78 85 93 89 82 79 72 65 63 59 58 55 V (KT) LAND 55 58 62 66 70 78 85 93 89 82 79 72 65 63 59 58 55 V (KT) LGEM 55 58 63 68 72 79 84 83 73 66 63 60 55 53 51 52 51 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 14 12 11 11 11 11 18 18 7 5 11 4 7 9 19 25 30 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -4 -2 0 0 -3 -1 2 -1 -3 3 11 2 1 2 8 13 SHEAR DIR 242 237 211 208 233 185 227 180 189 39 350 36 349 252 273 262 273 SST (C) 25.6 26.2 26.6 26.7 26.7 26.7 26.4 25.4 25.0 24.9 24.7 24.6 24.5 24.3 24.0 24.0 24.3 POT. INT. (KT) 108 114 118 118 116 118 117 108 104 102 100 100 100 98 97 97 99 ADJ. POT. INT. 92 97 99 99 96 98 99 92 88 85 83 84 84 83 83 83 84 200 MB T (C) -56.1 -56.3 -55.7 -55.3 -55.4 -54.4 -54.4 -53.5 -53.7 -53.8 -53.9 -53.7 -53.7 -53.0 -53.5 -54.0 -55.5 200 MB VXT (C) 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.4 1.2 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.2 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.3 1.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 11 10 10 10 9 9 8 9 6 5 3 2 1 1 1 700-500 MB RH 43 42 41 40 41 45 50 53 53 46 42 43 39 44 39 29 30 MODEL VTX (KT) 33 34 35 35 37 40 42 47 45 41 41 40 37 36 35 36 37 850 MB ENV VOR 148 150 150 145 142 140 127 121 78 66 50 39 17 21 56 66 69 200 MB DIV -3 8 15 11 -1 36 37 69 5 20 0 30 19 -13 -17 -23 -7 700-850 TADV 0 0 -3 -3 0 0 4 5 6 1 7 23 16 1 -10 -28 -30 LAND (KM) 1561 1606 1648 1639 1594 1620 1556 1391 1233 1117 1080 1067 1083 1128 1191 1277 1373 LAT (DEG N) 31.9 31.3 30.7 30.4 30.0 30.3 31.5 33.3 34.9 36.2 36.9 37.1 37.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 55.4 55.8 56.1 56.4 56.6 56.6 56.4 56.2 55.8 55.3 54.5 53.3 51.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 5 4 1 4 8 9 8 6 4 6 6 7 8 8 7 HEAT CONTENT 0 1 6 9 12 11 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):225/ 6 CX,CY: -3/ -3 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 725 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 60.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 15.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -11. -14. -17. -19. -21. -22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 7. 6. 4. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -2. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 8. 14. 12. 7. 5. 4. -1. -3. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 11. 15. 23. 30. 38. 34. 27. 24. 17. 10. 8. 4. 3. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 31.9 55.4 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132018 LESLIE 10/02/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.67 3.4 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 18.3 41.0 to 7.4 0.68 2.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 5.6 0.0 to 147.0 0.04 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.9 33.3 to 3.1 0.41 0.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.84 1.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 41.4 30.0 to 128.0 0.12 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.6 to -2.7 0.36 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 6.0 -28.0 to 171.0 0.17 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 423.4 814.0 to -65.0 0.44 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 49.5 95.0 to 0.0 0.48 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.6% 13.6% 9.4% 8.2% 6.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.3% 3.5% 1.9% 0.3% 0.1% 0.7% 1.0% 0.3% Bayesian: 0.9% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.6% 5.8% 3.8% 2.9% 2.2% 0.2% 0.3% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132018 LESLIE 10/02/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132018 LESLIE 10/02/2018 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 4( 4) 6( 10) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 58 62 66 70 78 85 93 89 82 79 72 65 63 59 58 55 18HR AGO 55 54 58 62 66 74 81 89 85 78 75 68 61 59 55 54 51 12HR AGO 55 52 51 55 59 67 74 82 78 71 68 61 54 52 48 47 44 6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 49 57 64 72 68 61 58 51 44 42 38 37 34 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT