* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * WALAKA CP012018 10/01/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 90 105 117 127 134 141 138 126 110 101 85 71 60 50 38 15 N/A V (KT) LAND 90 105 117 127 134 141 138 126 110 101 85 71 60 50 38 15 N/A V (KT) LGEM 90 106 119 126 130 130 124 110 93 77 62 53 49 45 39 26 16 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 1 3 7 7 4 12 12 23 28 25 5 8 16 30 38 45 46 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -6 -4 -4 0 -3 0 9 6 5 7 0 9 15 17 18 15 SHEAR DIR 270 291 308 282 290 268 254 252 266 248 257 306 217 224 196 194 228 SST (C) 29.5 29.8 29.8 29.5 29.0 28.6 28.6 27.1 26.9 26.3 26.0 24.8 24.1 24.2 22.1 15.2 13.1 POT. INT. (KT) 160 163 162 159 154 151 152 137 134 128 124 112 102 107 91 70 68 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.9 -53.1 -52.1 -52.2 -52.3 -51.5 -51.4 -50.6 -51.0 -51.0 -52.0 -52.0 -52.5 -51.8 -51.5 -51.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.5 0.7 1.2 1.5 1.2 0.9 0.7 0.5 0.1 0.6 1.7 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 11 10 8 6 6 4 5 5 3 3 2 0 0 700-500 MB RH 71 71 73 73 73 71 68 60 51 49 53 54 49 38 26 24 26 MODEL VTX (KT) 25 29 29 32 33 37 39 41 41 43 38 34 32 31 33 27 24 850 MB ENV VOR 89 87 86 80 79 69 86 103 157 162 128 113 110 89 40 16 16 200 MB DIV 125 129 133 128 106 140 140 126 48 13 2 54 58 56 45 33 4 700-850 TADV 2 2 4 8 8 16 19 33 45 38 10 16 18 29 18 -16 -47 LAND (KM) 1324 1339 1361 1355 1355 1251 1090 940 903 988 1117 1238 1399 1184 1649 1117 837 LAT (DEG N) 11.8 12.2 12.6 13.2 13.8 15.8 18.3 21.1 23.8 26.6 28.9 30.9 33.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 167.0 167.9 168.7 169.3 169.9 170.3 170.0 169.3 168.8 168.5 168.2 167.6 166.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 8 8 9 12 13 14 14 13 11 12 7 15 39 40 32 HEAT CONTENT 52 51 46 44 45 61 48 16 9 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 536 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 80.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 1. -3. -8. -13. -17. -20. -23. -25. -28. -32. -38. -44. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -3. -2. -2. -3. -7. -12. -20. -29. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -8. -7. -5. -3. -3. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 8. 12. 13. 12. 8. 4. 1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. -0. -2. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 5. 6. 9. 14. 20. 22. 26. 17. 11. 8. 7. 7. 1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 8. 7. 7. 6. 5. 3. 1. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. RI POTENTIAL 2. 6. 11. 16. 25. 23. 13. 3. -3. -9. -13. -15. -15. -15. -14. -14. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 15. 27. 37. 44. 51. 48. 36. 20. 11. -5. -19. -30. -40. -52. -75. -95. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 90. LAT, LON: 11.8 167.0 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX CP012018 WALAKA 10/01/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 69.7 30.0 to 135.0 0.38 11.6 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 35.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.92 27.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 124.2 -30.0 to 145.0 0.88 20.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 11.5 28.1 to 8.6 0.85 18.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 260.6 742.0 to -74.0 0.59 -15.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 90.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.48 9.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.6 34.4 to 2.3 0.90 16.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 47.6 3.0 to 94.0 0.49 5.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 4.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.0 to -2.0 0.59 0.9 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 100% is 15.9 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 100% is 7.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 99% is 11.6 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 98% is 16.1 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 97% is 23.8 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 93% is 13.9 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 100.0% 100.0% 98.5% 97.5% 96.5% 93.3% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 91.7% 89.3% 91.4% 88.9% 92.4% 81.2% 68.7% 1.0% Bayesian: 93.4% 92.5% 97.2% 96.2% 84.4% 42.6% 0.7% 0.0% Consensus: 95.0% 93.9% 95.7% 94.2% 91.1% 72.4% 23.1% 0.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP012018 WALAKA 10/01/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##