* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LESLIE AL132018 10/01/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 46 48 52 54 62 69 76 80 82 83 76 73 69 63 61 60 V (KT) LAND 45 46 48 52 54 62 69 76 80 82 83 76 73 69 63 61 60 V (KT) LGEM 45 46 48 50 53 60 68 73 75 75 70 64 62 60 58 55 54 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 29 22 19 11 14 7 18 12 20 18 10 4 12 9 14 14 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 0 2 -1 0 -2 -1 0 0 1 -1 0 5 7 3 10 SHEAR DIR 315 299 270 234 226 250 222 225 203 194 194 345 291 319 288 320 272 SST (C) 25.4 25.6 25.7 25.7 25.7 26.0 26.2 26.1 25.8 25.6 25.1 24.6 24.5 24.2 24.2 24.2 23.9 POT. INT. (KT) 106 107 108 108 108 110 111 110 110 109 105 101 99 98 98 99 97 ADJ. POT. INT. 88 89 90 90 90 92 92 91 92 92 89 85 84 82 84 84 83 200 MB T (C) -56.4 -56.6 -56.6 -55.7 -55.8 -56.1 -55.4 -55.3 -54.7 -54.8 -54.2 -54.7 -53.6 -54.5 -54.2 -55.2 -55.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.2 1.7 1.2 1.6 1.4 2.1 1.0 1.2 0.4 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 9 9 10 9 9 8 8 8 8 5 2 1 1 700-500 MB RH 48 47 48 48 47 45 43 48 49 56 49 48 43 43 45 49 53 MODEL VTX (KT) 27 27 29 31 31 34 35 38 40 42 42 38 37 37 35 35 35 850 MB ENV VOR 159 153 165 163 156 154 154 147 142 143 108 66 52 69 62 57 60 200 MB DIV -15 -1 3 13 2 25 22 26 42 52 -3 16 3 24 -10 -6 -5 700-850 TADV -5 -3 -4 -2 -3 -1 -5 0 -3 -3 2 -1 4 0 4 10 1 LAND (KM) 1469 1476 1484 1505 1527 1586 1637 1658 1609 1515 1389 1223 1107 1032 1019 1083 1168 LAT (DEG N) 33.4 33.2 33.0 32.7 32.4 31.7 31.2 31.1 31.7 32.8 34.2 35.7 36.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 53.5 53.8 54.2 54.5 54.8 55.3 55.3 55.0 54.5 53.9 53.3 52.5 51.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 4 4 4 3 2 2 5 6 8 7 6 7 8 10 9 HEAT CONTENT 4 3 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):250/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 699 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 29.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 5. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 7. 10. 13. 15. 15. 9. 7. 5. 2. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. 8. 8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 7. 9. 17. 24. 31. 35. 37. 38. 31. 28. 24. 18. 16. 15. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 33.4 53.5 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132018 LESLIE 10/01/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.60 2.4 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 26.9 41.0 to 7.4 0.42 1.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 1.6 0.0 to 147.0 0.01 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.5 33.3 to 3.1 0.39 0.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.56 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 44.4 30.0 to 128.0 0.15 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.7 2.6 to -2.7 0.17 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 0.4 -28.0 to 171.0 0.14 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 290.8 814.0 to -65.0 0.60 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 38.4 95.0 to 0.0 0.60 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 0.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.2% 8.1% 6.0% 5.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 0.7% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.5% 0.5% 0.4% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.2% 2.9% 2.1% 1.9% 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132018 LESLIE 10/01/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132018 LESLIE 10/01/2018 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 46 48 52 54 62 69 76 80 82 83 76 73 69 63 61 60 18HR AGO 45 44 46 50 52 60 67 74 78 80 81 74 71 67 61 59 58 12HR AGO 45 42 41 45 47 55 62 69 73 75 76 69 66 62 56 54 53 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 37 45 52 59 63 65 66 59 56 52 46 44 43 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT