* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LESLIE AL132018 09/30/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 46 47 47 48 52 54 60 63 66 69 70 67 62 58 55 55 V (KT) LAND 45 46 47 47 48 52 54 60 63 66 69 70 67 62 58 55 55 V (KT) LGEM 45 47 48 48 50 53 58 64 70 72 74 72 69 65 63 58 55 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SUBT TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 30 30 29 27 25 15 17 10 19 18 20 9 8 9 10 12 26 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -2 -2 -2 -1 4 -3 -4 -2 -4 0 -1 0 0 3 2 3 SHEAR DIR 1 360 348 337 317 279 235 213 208 206 174 161 332 341 308 307 255 SST (C) 25.1 25.1 25.2 25.5 25.7 25.9 26.0 26.1 26.1 26.1 26.0 25.8 25.2 25.0 24.4 22.7 23.1 POT. INT. (KT) 104 103 104 106 108 109 110 111 109 110 111 110 106 105 101 91 93 ADJ. POT. INT. 87 87 87 89 89 90 91 91 89 91 93 93 90 89 86 79 80 200 MB T (C) -55.7 -56.2 -56.4 -56.5 -56.6 -56.1 -55.7 -56.5 -55.7 -55.8 -54.8 -55.0 -54.7 -54.6 -54.5 -54.9 -54.3 200 MB VXT (C) 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.7 0.6 0.9 1.4 1.1 1.7 1.1 1.8 0.6 1.8 1.0 1.1 0.4 1.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 9 8 9 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 7 1 0 700-500 MB RH 48 49 52 52 51 52 51 46 41 46 51 57 52 49 44 50 39 MODEL VTX (KT) 29 28 27 27 28 31 31 34 35 37 39 40 38 37 34 33 33 850 MB ENV VOR 158 159 164 157 153 176 169 161 158 157 158 137 96 55 32 52 97 200 MB DIV 0 -1 -7 -2 -5 20 5 40 36 17 31 6 -31 12 21 23 17 700-850 TADV -2 -2 -3 -1 -3 -4 -3 -2 -6 0 -1 0 7 4 6 -11 -60 LAND (KM) 1416 1441 1467 1489 1499 1525 1553 1582 1608 1600 1543 1429 1311 1158 1010 907 858 LAT (DEG N) 34.0 33.8 33.5 33.3 33.1 32.7 32.3 31.9 31.6 31.7 32.3 33.5 34.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 51.8 52.2 52.7 53.1 53.5 53.9 54.3 54.7 54.9 54.8 54.6 54.3 53.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 4 4 4 3 3 3 2 0 2 5 7 8 10 11 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 2 3 3 3 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):225/ 7 CX,CY: -4/ -4 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 601 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 25.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -7. -8. -8. -7. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -2. -0. -0. 3. 4. 5. 8. 8. 5. 2. -2. -4. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 8. 9. 8. 8. 9. 9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 2. 3. 7. 9. 15. 18. 21. 24. 25. 22. 17. 13. 10. 10. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 34.0 51.8 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132018 LESLIE 09/30/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.67 2.9 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 34.0 41.0 to 7.4 0.21 0.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 1.6 0.0 to 147.0 0.01 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.7 33.3 to 3.1 0.65 1.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.56 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 42.7 30.0 to 128.0 0.13 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.6 to -2.7 0.38 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : -3.0 -28.0 to 171.0 0.13 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 262.2 814.0 to -65.0 0.63 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 66.7 95.0 to 0.0 0.30 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.0% 9.3% 6.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.6% 0.7% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.5% 0.3% 0.3% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.9% 3.4% 2.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132018 LESLIE 09/30/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132018 LESLIE 09/30/2018 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 46 47 47 48 52 54 60 63 66 69 70 67 62 58 55 55 18HR AGO 45 44 45 45 46 50 52 58 61 64 67 68 65 60 56 53 53 12HR AGO 45 42 41 41 42 46 48 54 57 60 63 64 61 56 52 49 49 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 36 40 42 48 51 54 57 58 55 50 46 43 43 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT