* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ROSA EP202018 09/28/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 120 117 114 113 111 100 90 77 64 45 30 16 25 22 20 20 20 V (KT) LAND 120 117 114 113 111 100 90 77 64 45 32 28 28 29 29 29 29 V (KT) LGEM 120 115 111 106 102 90 75 61 47 34 26 27 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 6 6 7 2 3 8 13 18 24 33 42 54 78 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -5 -9 -8 -4 -1 0 4 2 1 -2 3 -9 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 14 1 36 31 221 203 222 212 229 235 239 222 232 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.1 28.0 27.8 27.6 27.1 26.0 24.8 24.4 23.0 20.8 30.1 29.8 29.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 143 142 141 139 134 123 111 107 93 71 170 167 165 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -51.6 -51.3 -51.8 -51.8 -51.0 -51.6 -51.1 -51.6 -51.2 -51.5 -51.3 -52.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.0 1.1 1.4 1.5 1.2 0.9 1.0 1.0 0.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 5 5 3 2 2 1 2 3 9 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 66 66 67 64 62 63 63 55 54 58 62 62 56 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 33 34 33 35 36 35 36 33 29 23 13 4 15 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 34 38 39 28 19 21 25 25 20 5 29 68 74 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 35 20 31 30 28 62 34 28 49 64 82 78 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -3 -4 -2 -2 -2 6 2 8 5 -9 8 15 89 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1014 995 976 936 900 786 640 435 204 29 -120 -593 -999 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.0 17.4 17.8 18.5 19.1 20.9 22.8 24.8 26.9 29.3 32.4 36.1 39.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 117.4 117.7 118.0 118.3 118.5 118.7 118.4 117.8 116.8 115.5 113.4 110.7 108.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 16 20 21 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 10 9 8 7 4 0 0 0 0 0 5 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 125 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 553 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -2. -3. -6. -9. -18. -29. -40. -51. -62. -63. -63. -62. -63. -65. -67. -71. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. -2. -7. -14. -27. -32. -35. -35. -35. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 6. 5. 4. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. 12. 13. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 3. 2. 3. -0. -5. -15. -28. -38. -21. -19. -18. -16. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -3. -6. -7. -9. -20. -30. -43. -56. -75. -90.-104. -95. -98.-100.-100.-100. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 120. LAT, LON: 17.0 117.4 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP202018 ROSA 09/28/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 19.6 30.0 to 135.0 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.25 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 28.8 -30.0 to 145.0 0.34 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 9.5 28.1 to 8.6 0.95 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 536.0 742.0 to -74.0 0.25 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 120.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.6 34.4 to 2.3 0.90 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 7.6 3.0 to 94.0 0.05 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.0 to -2.0 0.42 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 10.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.2% 1.5% 0.5% 0.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.9% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP202018 ROSA 09/28/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##