* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ROSA EP202018 09/28/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 125 133 134 132 128 116 103 91 76 60 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 125 133 134 132 128 116 103 91 76 60 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 125 130 128 121 115 103 92 79 63 48 33 22 24 26 27 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 4 4 6 3 5 2 6 11 16 26 35 45 62 68 42 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -1 -5 -6 -7 -6 -3 -7 3 3 -2 3 0 -7 -3 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 97 5 13 51 34 123 189 226 216 231 226 234 231 224 232 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.4 28.1 27.8 27.7 27.7 27.2 26.4 25.3 24.1 23.9 22.5 24.7 30.1 29.8 29.0 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 147 144 140 139 139 135 127 116 103 101 88 112 169 166 158 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.2 -51.7 -51.9 -51.5 -51.2 -51.4 -50.8 -51.1 -50.4 -50.9 -50.8 -50.0 -50.0 -51.1 -53.8 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.7 1.0 1.1 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.2 1.2 1.3 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 4 4 3 3 1 1 1 2 3 6 4 3 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 68 66 64 64 63 59 57 53 45 40 40 38 46 51 55 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 31 33 33 34 36 36 37 37 34 30 21 9 16 21 10 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 55 62 61 67 71 66 61 61 58 17 31 19 29 31 16 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 89 76 0 7 43 39 66 41 4 31 47 45 32 -7 -7 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 -3 -2 -3 0 -2 5 3 3 0 -22 24 -11 10 0 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 944 982 1013 1005 1000 945 847 720 546 348 142 -37 -151 -535 -930 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.9 17.1 17.2 17.6 17.9 19.0 20.6 22.4 24.1 25.7 27.5 29.8 32.6 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 116.4 117.1 117.7 118.1 118.5 119.0 119.2 119.1 118.6 117.6 116.4 114.9 113.1 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 6 5 5 6 7 9 9 9 10 12 14 17 17 18 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 14 11 8 7 7 5 1 0 0 0 0 0 5 4 4 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 458 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -7. -10. -18. -28. -40. -51. -60. -69. -75. -73. -71. -70. -73. -77. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -0. -0. 2. 3. 5. 6. 5. 2. -4. -13. -26. -33. -33. -33. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. PERSISTENCE 10. 13. 12. 10. 6. 1. -4. -7. -7. -7. -9. -11. -11. -10. -10. -8. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 3. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. -10. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 6. 7. 4. -2. -14. -29. -18. -11. -21. -19. -17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 8. 9. 7. 3. -9. -22. -34. -49. -65. -87.-114.-111.-114.-132.-134.-132. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 125. LAT, LON: 16.9 116.4 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP202018 ROSA 09/28/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 16.9 30.0 to 135.0 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 35.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.92 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 43.0 -30.0 to 145.0 0.42 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 10.5 28.1 to 8.6 0.90 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 550.0 742.0 to -74.0 0.24 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 125.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.9 34.4 to 2.3 0.83 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 9.4 3.0 to 94.0 0.07 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.0 to -2.0 0.47 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 56.3% 25.1% 22.0% 20.7% 19.0% 3.8% 0.4% 0.0% Bayesian: 4.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 20.1% 8.4% 7.3% 6.9% 6.3% 1.3% 0.1% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP202018 ROSA 09/28/18 00 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 1 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##