* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ROSA EP202018 09/26/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 63 73 82 91 103 108 112 111 106 102 96 86 75 63 50 34 V (KT) LAND 55 63 73 82 91 103 108 112 111 106 102 96 86 75 63 50 34 V (KT) LGEM 55 63 72 81 89 102 108 111 109 102 93 82 69 55 43 32 23 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 9 7 8 4 10 4 4 2 5 9 10 15 30 28 29 38 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -2 -2 -1 4 4 -2 -3 -2 -2 0 -1 4 0 -1 -2 8 SHEAR DIR 54 54 46 50 19 24 20 66 177 302 214 231 201 222 219 235 230 SST (C) 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.3 28.9 28.7 28.6 28.2 28.0 27.6 26.5 25.6 25.0 24.1 23.7 23.6 23.1 POT. INT. (KT) 158 158 158 157 153 151 150 145 143 139 127 118 111 102 98 96 91 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -52.1 -52.2 -51.9 -51.7 -52.1 -51.6 -51.6 -50.7 -50.9 -50.3 -51.2 -50.4 -51.4 -51.8 -52.0 -51.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.9 1.0 1.2 1.2 1.6 1.6 1.7 1.4 1.7 1.0 0.6 0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 9 8 8 7 6 5 4 3 3 2 2 1 2 700-500 MB RH 71 71 71 72 71 71 68 66 63 58 57 50 44 38 33 27 18 MODEL VTX (KT) 20 21 25 26 28 31 32 37 39 39 40 40 37 34 28 21 10 850 MB ENV VOR 39 36 35 40 41 46 48 54 67 60 63 60 68 71 60 95 57 200 MB DIV 89 78 66 68 41 28 22 42 62 35 105 64 30 20 10 13 -18 700-850 TADV -1 0 0 -2 -4 -8 -5 -5 0 1 4 4 2 5 -5 -4 -12 LAND (KM) 668 708 752 806 807 845 913 998 1017 1013 991 940 847 737 619 512 416 LAT (DEG N) 15.0 15.3 15.5 15.8 16.0 16.3 16.6 17.0 17.7 18.6 19.7 21.0 22.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 109.3 110.1 110.8 111.6 112.4 114.0 115.6 117.2 118.5 119.5 120.2 120.6 120.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 5 6 HEAT CONTENT 24 21 21 21 21 24 15 10 8 9 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 443 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 70.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 10. 10. 10. 10. 8. 6. 4. 1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 8. 8. 7. 4. 0. -3. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 3. 4. 6. 9. 11. 13. 13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 3. 5. 6. 8. 12. 21. 26. 27. 27. 26. 20. 14. 8. 1. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL 2. 5. 9. 14. 21. 19. 11. 3. -3. -7. -11. -12. -13. -12. -12. -11. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 8. 18. 27. 36. 48. 53. 57. 56. 51. 47. 41. 31. 20. 8. -5. -21. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 15.0 109.3 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP202018 ROSA 09/26/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 101.8 30.0 to 135.0 0.68 15.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.58 13.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 68.4 -30.0 to 145.0 0.56 9.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 16.9 28.1 to 8.6 0.58 9.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 185.2 742.0 to -74.0 0.68 -13.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.92 13.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.6 34.4 to 2.3 0.68 9.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 21.6 3.0 to 94.0 0.20 1.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 3.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.8 2.0 to -2.0 0.70 0.8 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 43% is 6.9 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 69% is 5.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 64% is 7.4 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 56% is 9.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 37% is 8.9 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 47% is 7.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 36% is 6.1 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 22% is 4.6 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 43.2% 69.1% 63.9% 55.7% 37.2% 47.1% 36.1% 21.5% Logistic: 15.0% 36.9% 24.6% 17.4% 10.4% 31.9% 38.4% 11.0% Bayesian: 11.0% 52.1% 41.7% 29.6% 6.9% 28.5% 15.4% 0.5% Consensus: 23.1% 52.7% 43.4% 34.2% 18.2% 35.8% 29.9% 11.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP202018 ROSA 09/26/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##