* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LESLIE AL132018 09/24/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 37 38 40 42 49 54 56 59 62 64 66 66 64 62 62 65 V (KT) LAND 35 37 38 40 42 49 54 56 59 62 64 66 66 64 62 62 65 V (KT) LGEM 35 35 36 37 39 44 51 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type SUBT SUBT SUBT TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 23 22 19 21 22 12 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -4 -2 -2 -5 -1 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 15 18 9 354 349 267 230 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.7 26.8 26.9 27.1 27.2 27.2 26.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 118 118 120 123 125 126 116 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 97 95 98 102 105 107 99 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -56.1 -56.4 -56.8 -57.0 -57.5 -58.0 -57.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.0 0.6 0.3 0.7 0.4 0.0 -0.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 7 7 7 6 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 46 47 49 52 57 49 42 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 20 19 19 17 17 19 21 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 81 77 66 65 76 105 135 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 15 -7 14 -12 0 33 -13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 1 4 4 1 -3 -24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1590 1604 1618 1636 1657 1717 1802 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 32.8 32.7 32.6 32.6 32.5 32.6 32.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 48.7 48.6 48.4 47.8 47.2 44.9 42.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 3 2 3 5 8 9 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 3 4 4 5 5 5 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):220/ 7 CX,CY: -3/ -4 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 420 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 28.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. 0. 2. 4. 7. 9. 11. 13. 13. 12. 12. 11. 10. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 3. 0. -2. -5. -8. -10. -12. -15. -17. -18. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 14. 15. 15. 15. 15. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -2. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -4. -5. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 5. 7. 14. 19. 21. 24. 27. 29. 31. 31. 29. 27. 27. 30. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 32.8 48.7 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132018 LESLIE 09/24/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.60 2.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 25.7 41.0 to 7.4 0.46 1.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 4.2 0.0 to 147.0 0.03 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.6 33.3 to 3.1 0.52 1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.28 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 64.5 30.0 to 128.0 0.35 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.6 to -2.7 0.61 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 2.0 -28.0 to 171.0 0.15 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 201.4 814.0 to -65.0 0.70 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 85.7 95.0 to 0.0 0.10 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.3% 10.4% 7.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.5% 2.2% 1.0% 0.4% 0.1% 1.5% 0.4% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.1% 4.2% 2.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.5% 0.1% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132018 LESLIE 09/24/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132018 LESLIE 09/24/2018 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 37 38 40 42 49 54 56 59 62 64 66 66 64 62 62 65 18HR AGO 35 34 35 37 39 46 51 53 56 59 61 63 63 61 59 59 62 12HR AGO 35 32 31 33 35 42 47 49 52 55 57 59 59 57 55 55 58 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 27 34 39 41 44 47 49 51 51 49 47 47 50 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT