* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JOYCE AL102018 09/14/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 37 39 41 43 43 40 34 30 28 25 24 22 20 17 16 N/A V (KT) LAND 35 37 39 41 43 43 40 34 30 28 25 24 22 20 17 16 N/A V (KT) LGEM 35 35 36 37 37 37 34 33 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 27 29 30 33 38 37 35 39 41 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -5 0 -1 -4 1 -1 3 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 220 211 218 220 223 224 234 246 248 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.4 27.3 27.2 27.2 27.4 27.3 26.9 26.6 25.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 126 124 123 124 127 128 124 121 113 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 104 102 102 103 107 109 107 104 97 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -55.3 -55.5 -55.6 -55.8 -55.9 -55.9 -56.2 -56.1 -55.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.9 1.0 0.6 0.2 0.1 -0.5 -0.3 -0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 9 9 8 8 7 6 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 41 40 39 41 43 40 39 36 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 12 11 11 8 5 3 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 123 134 134 110 63 -3 -52 -74 -56 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 7 10 23 19 -2 0 -5 14 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -4 -6 -4 0 0 3 -7 -18 -14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1800 1826 1852 1844 1838 1807 1805 1885 1983 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 31.8 31.7 31.5 31.8 32.0 33.0 34.3 35.5 36.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 44.9 44.6 44.3 43.8 43.3 41.7 39.3 36.2 33.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 4 3 3 5 7 10 13 14 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 5 4 4 4 6 6 3 1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):200/ 7 CX,CY: -1/ -6 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 776 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 26.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 8. 10. 13. 14. 14. 14. 14. 13. 12. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. -2. -10. -17. -24. -30. -35. -39. -45. -49. -51. -52. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 7. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 9. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. 9. 10. 10. 12. 12. 13. 13. 13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -2. -5. -10. -15. -17. -18. -20. -21. -21. -21. -20. -20. -19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 8. 8. 5. -1. -5. -7. -10. -11. -13. -15. -18. -19. -20. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 31.8 44.9 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL102018 JOYCE 09/14/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.60 1.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 37.0 41.0 to 7.4 0.12 0.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 4.6 0.0 to 147.0 0.03 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.3 33.3 to 3.1 0.26 0.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.28 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 68.3 30.0 to 128.0 0.39 0.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.6 to -2.7 0.44 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 11.4 -28.0 to 171.0 0.20 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 255.0 814.0 to -65.0 0.64 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 90.6 95.0 to 0.0 0.05 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.4% 5.0% 3.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.5% 0.8% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.0% 1.9% 1.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL102018 JOYCE 09/14/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL102018 JOYCE 09/14/2018 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 37 39 41 43 43 40 34 30 28 25 24 22 20 17 16 DIS 18HR AGO 35 34 36 38 40 40 37 31 27 25 22 21 19 17 DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 35 32 31 33 35 35 32 26 22 20 17 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 27 27 24 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT