* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PAUL EP182018 09/10/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 39 38 36 34 28 22 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 40 39 38 36 34 28 22 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 40 40 40 37 35 30 25 21 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 18 15 13 8 7 5 1 6 8 13 20 33 43 52 52 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 3 3 4 3 3 9 0 8 2 11 9 11 4 4 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 77 80 74 55 57 28 184 289 234 234 234 242 230 228 222 N/A N/A SST (C) 27.6 27.4 27.0 26.6 26.2 25.8 24.8 23.4 22.8 22.2 22.2 22.2 22.5 23.0 23.2 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 140 137 133 129 125 121 110 95 88 82 81 80 84 89 91 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.6 -52.7 -52.6 -52.4 -52.7 -52.9 -53.1 -53.3 -53.4 -53.5 -53.4 -53.4 -53.4 -53.5 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.2 -0.3 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 4 3 3 2 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 56 55 53 50 47 40 35 32 29 30 36 34 33 36 38 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 18 17 16 15 14 11 10 7 6 4 3 2 4 4 4 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 84 81 60 58 59 62 66 45 50 48 51 38 31 14 2 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 30 9 -18 -24 -23 -26 -24 0 5 4 -2 12 19 4 -12 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 -1 3 2 -1 2 -2 2 1 0 2 0 6 0 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 952 961 976 1003 1012 1079 1180 1300 1419 1508 1552 1580 1619 1672 1720 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.1 19.7 20.2 20.7 21.2 21.9 22.4 22.8 23.2 23.6 23.7 23.8 23.8 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 119.2 119.8 120.4 121.2 121.9 123.5 125.1 126.7 128.2 129.4 130.3 130.9 131.5 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 8 9 8 8 8 8 6 5 3 3 3 4 3 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 14 10 5 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 10 CX,CY: -5/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 468 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 31.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 7. 7. 5. 3. -1. -5. -8. -10. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 5. 4. 1. -2. -7. -14. -21. -24. -25. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -11. -11. -13. -15. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -13. -16. -20. -20. -20. -17. -16. -14. -12. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -7. -6. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -4. -6. -12. -18. -24. -28. -33. -37. -44. -50. -58. -64. -68. -70. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 19.1 119.2 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP182018 PAUL 09/10/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 92.8 30.0 to 135.0 0.60 5.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.42 3.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : -5.2 -30.0 to 145.0 0.14 0.9 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 25.4 28.1 to 8.6 0.14 0.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 304.8 742.0 to -74.0 0.54 -3.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.46 2.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.0 34.4 to 2.3 0.45 2.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 6.0 3.0 to 94.0 0.03 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.0 2.0 to -2.0 0.74 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 14.0% 12.5% 9.8% 6.2% 13.6% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 4.7% 4.2% 3.3% 2.1% 4.5% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP182018 PAUL 09/10/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##