* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PAUL EP182018 09/09/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 40 39 37 35 30 25 20 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 40 40 39 37 35 30 25 20 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 40 41 40 39 37 31 26 22 19 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 21 20 20 14 10 8 4 4 5 14 17 27 43 53 60 64 61 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 4 2 3 5 0 3 2 6 3 9 14 9 5 2 -1 -7 SHEAR DIR 71 84 90 92 72 57 109 229 221 210 234 232 239 230 234 225 229 SST (C) 27.8 27.7 27.6 27.2 26.7 25.8 25.7 24.0 23.2 22.4 21.8 21.6 21.9 22.1 22.8 23.5 23.9 POT. INT. (KT) 142 140 139 135 130 121 120 102 93 84 77 75 78 80 87 94 99 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.5 -52.7 -52.8 -52.7 -52.7 -52.9 -53.0 -53.4 -53.4 -53.5 -53.1 -53.6 -53.5 -53.4 -53.5 -54.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 4 3 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 1 700-500 MB RH 58 56 54 53 49 40 36 31 29 30 31 35 35 32 34 33 34 MODEL VTX (KT) 17 16 15 15 14 11 9 7 5 4 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 77 78 78 56 51 58 65 56 37 50 44 35 35 26 11 -8 -27 200 MB DIV 35 26 4 -23 -14 -24 -7 -12 6 0 14 0 27 3 0 -20 -16 700-850 TADV -3 0 0 0 2 1 0 4 4 3 1 -1 1 3 15 9 17 LAND (KM) 974 964 962 983 1009 1061 1171 1289 1410 1524 1540 1565 1602 1642 1699 1751 1811 LAT (DEG N) 18.2 18.8 19.4 20.0 20.5 21.4 22.0 22.5 23.0 23.4 23.9 24.2 24.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 118.5 119.1 119.6 120.3 121.0 122.8 124.7 126.4 128.0 129.4 130.4 131.2 132.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 8 9 9 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 4 3 4 3 4 HEAT CONTENT 13 14 14 8 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 9 CX,CY: -5/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 519 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 56.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 9. 9. 7. 4. 0. -4. -8. -10. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. -0. -3. -8. -14. -22. -32. -40. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -11. -11. -13. -15. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -12. -17. -18. -21. -20. -18. -16. -15. -13. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. -1. -3. -5. -10. -15. -20. -25. -28. -33. -37. -43. -52. -61. -73. -81. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 18.2 118.5 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP182018 PAUL 09/09/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 97.4 30.0 to 135.0 0.64 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.42 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 5.6 -30.0 to 145.0 0.20 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 29.9 28.1 to 8.6 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 287.6 742.0 to -74.0 0.56 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.46 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.0 34.4 to 2.3 0.26 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 10.2 3.0 to 94.0 0.08 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.5 2.0 to -2.0 0.87 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 10.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 11.4% 10.6% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 3.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 3.8% 3.5% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP182018 PAUL 09/09/18 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##