* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OLIVIA EP172018 09/09/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 65 63 62 62 62 61 60 56 49 43 37 35 33 29 27 28 29 V (KT) LAND 65 63 62 62 62 61 60 56 49 43 37 35 33 29 27 28 29 V (KT) LGEM 65 63 62 61 61 61 62 61 58 53 48 45 43 41 40 41 43 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 7 5 4 6 5 11 18 25 26 31 32 33 34 35 20 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -4 -2 0 0 3 10 8 7 9 5 1 1 2 -4 0 -5 SHEAR DIR 333 334 346 256 288 237 250 262 263 261 262 267 266 261 256 246 253 SST (C) 25.8 26.0 26.2 26.1 26.2 26.2 26.7 27.1 26.9 27.5 27.5 28.0 28.3 27.8 28.4 28.4 28.2 POT. INT. (KT) 122 124 126 125 125 125 130 135 133 139 140 145 148 143 150 150 148 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.8 -52.4 -52.0 -52.3 -52.0 -52.4 -52.6 -52.9 -53.5 -53.7 -54.1 -54.6 -54.8 -55.1 -55.8 -56.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.1 -0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 -0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 -0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 7 8 8 8 8 8 8 9 9 10 10 10 10 10 10 700-500 MB RH 30 29 29 28 27 28 30 32 37 37 41 40 43 44 47 50 50 MODEL VTX (KT) 19 19 19 20 19 18 18 16 14 12 10 11 11 10 9 9 10 850 MB ENV VOR 26 22 15 13 18 23 32 43 55 61 67 70 88 78 78 72 67 200 MB DIV 16 15 8 -10 -2 -5 0 13 -26 -5 -27 2 29 45 23 15 -1 700-850 TADV -5 -1 2 4 4 3 2 0 -5 -2 -3 -5 -2 5 4 5 5 LAND (KM) 1231 1109 988 878 769 572 389 207 34 129 222 362 566 781 1035 1338 1634 LAT (DEG N) 21.8 21.8 21.8 21.8 21.8 21.7 21.5 21.1 20.6 20.1 19.8 19.7 19.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 143.2 144.4 145.6 146.7 147.8 149.8 151.7 153.6 155.7 158.0 160.4 162.9 165.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 11 11 10 10 9 9 10 11 11 12 11 11 12 14 14 14 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 2 0 1 0 5 7 3 24 18 42 30 22 27 30 27 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 638 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 26.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 6.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 2. -1. -4. -8. -11. -14. -17. -19. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 8. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. -8. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -4. -7. -10. -12. -11. -10. -10. -10. -9. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -6. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -8. -7. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -9. -16. -22. -28. -30. -32. -36. -38. -37. -36. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 21.8 143.2 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP172018 OLIVIA 09/09/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 59.4 30.0 to 135.0 0.28 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.25 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 5.4 -30.0 to 145.0 0.20 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 13.7 28.1 to 8.6 0.74 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 735.0 742.0 to -74.0 0.01 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.88 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.8 34.4 to 2.3 0.67 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.6 3.0 to 94.0 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 56.1 56.6 to 0.0 0.01 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.0 to -2.0 0.41 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 2.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 25.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.7% 1.1% 1.6% 0.7% 1.1% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.2% 8.7% 0.5% 0.2% 0.4% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172018 OLIVIA 09/09/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##