* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EIGHTEEN EP182018 09/09/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 32 32 32 32 33 33 32 31 28 25 21 15 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 30 31 32 32 32 32 33 33 32 31 28 25 21 15 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 30 30 30 29 28 26 23 21 19 17 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 17 18 16 16 14 9 11 7 2 5 11 16 23 31 38 51 54 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 2 4 5 6 4 0 1 1 -2 0 -2 4 4 11 5 5 SHEAR DIR 57 71 68 59 69 64 39 32 38 252 237 242 244 249 245 244 236 SST (C) 27.9 27.6 27.5 27.8 27.8 28.0 27.2 26.1 26.2 24.6 24.0 24.0 23.7 23.3 23.7 24.0 23.9 POT. INT. (KT) 142 139 138 141 141 144 135 124 126 108 102 101 98 93 97 100 99 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.7 -52.9 -52.7 -52.2 -52.3 -52.2 -52.5 -52.5 -52.7 -52.8 -52.9 -52.9 -52.9 -53.1 -53.3 -54.0 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.0 -0.1 0.1 0.2 0.0 -0.3 -0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 5 6 5 4 3 3 2 2 1 2 2 2 2 2 700-500 MB RH 62 62 61 58 58 54 48 42 37 35 33 34 35 37 39 39 35 MODEL VTX (KT) 19 19 21 20 21 20 19 18 16 15 13 12 11 9 8 7 6 850 MB ENV VOR 69 85 78 76 83 71 72 76 78 59 57 57 53 43 42 32 14 200 MB DIV 81 72 47 33 43 4 -20 -14 -11 -14 12 0 -3 8 -1 -10 7 700-850 TADV -2 -3 -4 -5 -1 -1 0 -3 0 -3 1 1 0 3 5 9 6 LAND (KM) 1069 1071 1061 1043 1031 1043 1127 1206 1324 1448 1582 1655 1697 1748 1804 1856 1919 LAT (DEG N) 15.9 16.5 17.0 17.6 18.1 19.3 20.0 20.6 21.2 21.9 22.5 23.1 23.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 117.0 117.6 118.2 118.7 119.2 120.5 122.1 123.9 125.9 127.8 129.6 131.1 132.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 7 8 8 9 9 10 9 8 7 6 5 5 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 12 8 8 11 13 28 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 463 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 51.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 15. 19. 21. 22. 21. 19. 17. 15. 13. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -2. -5. -10. -18. -25. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -10. -12. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -4. -6. -8. -10. -10. -11. -11. -11. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. -2. -5. -9. -15. -21. -31. -39. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 15.9 117.0 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP182018 EIGHTEEN 09/09/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 110.4 30.0 to 135.0 0.77 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.33 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 55.2 -30.0 to 145.0 0.49 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 29.3 28.1 to 8.6 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 156.0 742.0 to -74.0 0.72 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.15 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.3 34.4 to 2.3 0.31 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 10.4 3.0 to 94.0 0.08 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.8 2.0 to -2.0 0.93 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 0.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 11.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 11.4% 0.0% 11.9% Logistic: 0.1% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.4% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 4.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 3.8% 0.0% 4.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP182018 EIGHTEEN 09/09/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##