* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HELENE AL082018 09/09/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 56 61 67 73 82 86 83 81 76 69 62 58 52 49 48 48 V (KT) LAND 50 56 61 67 73 82 86 83 81 76 69 62 58 52 49 48 48 V (KT) LGEM 50 55 60 65 70 81 85 83 78 71 62 56 50 46 44 45 46 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 8 8 6 9 4 3 11 13 20 27 29 33 31 33 30 31 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 5 2 2 4 4 6 8 9 5 3 1 -2 -6 -3 -2 -4 SHEAR DIR 73 63 73 93 75 88 182 224 225 216 215 210 206 208 198 209 203 SST (C) 27.7 27.6 27.5 27.3 27.2 26.9 26.0 26.0 25.8 25.9 25.4 25.4 25.4 26.1 26.7 27.1 27.4 POT. INT. (KT) 133 132 131 129 128 125 115 114 112 113 108 108 108 115 121 125 129 ADJ. POT. INT. 131 131 130 127 127 123 111 109 105 104 100 99 98 103 106 109 111 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.5 -53.3 -52.8 -53.1 -53.1 -53.1 -52.8 -52.5 -52.5 -52.0 -52.1 -52.2 -52.6 -52.2 -53.3 -53.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.2 1.5 1.8 1.2 1.5 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 8 9 9 9 700-500 MB RH 71 72 71 72 72 70 67 63 59 54 50 44 43 44 44 44 39 MODEL VTX (KT) 24 25 25 25 27 30 32 31 32 32 30 29 29 27 26 27 28 850 MB ENV VOR 55 59 57 53 49 49 33 36 48 52 52 59 76 68 46 33 27 200 MB DIV 21 28 37 39 23 40 44 40 38 58 49 16 2 11 13 33 17 700-850 TADV 6 2 0 -1 0 -1 -1 8 11 5 10 14 12 4 2 7 5 LAND (KM) 537 667 800 939 1080 1386 1675 1946 2112 2068 2099 2183 2326 2467 2290 2081 1875 LAT (DEG N) 13.2 13.4 13.5 13.8 14.0 14.7 15.6 16.6 17.6 18.6 20.0 21.7 23.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 22.2 23.5 24.8 26.1 27.5 30.4 33.1 35.6 37.7 39.5 40.8 41.9 42.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 13 13 13 14 15 13 12 11 9 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 8 9 8 4 5 6 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 3 6 7 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 497 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 40.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 7. 5. 4. 3. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 7. 8. 9. 8. 6. 4. 1. -1. -4. -6. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 6. 5. 7. 5. 2. -0. -1. -4. -6. -5. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 6. 8. 12. 11. 8. 4. 1. -2. -5. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 6. 11. 17. 23. 32. 36. 33. 31. 26. 19. 12. 8. 2. -1. -2. -2. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 13.2 22.2 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082018 HELENE 09/09/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.73 7.3 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 20.9 41.0 to 7.4 0.60 3.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 6.8 0.0 to 147.0 0.05 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.3 33.3 to 3.1 0.86 3.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.70 2.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 79.3 30.0 to 128.0 0.50 0.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.6 to -2.7 0.58 1.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 29.6 -28.0 to 171.0 0.29 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 174.6 814.0 to -65.0 0.73 1.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 95.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.8 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 35% is 3.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 4.1 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.9 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 13.8% 34.6% 22.5% 15.0% 9.8% 18.0% 15.7% 0.0% Logistic: 22.8% 36.6% 24.8% 15.2% 11.9% 20.8% 13.3% 2.9% Bayesian: 16.8% 49.3% 20.2% 5.9% 5.7% 14.1% 3.1% 1.9% Consensus: 17.8% 40.2% 22.5% 12.1% 9.1% 17.6% 10.7% 1.6% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082018 HELENE 09/09/2018 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 4( 4) 8( 12) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 50 56 61 67 73 82 86 83 81 76 69 62 58 52 49 48 48 18HR AGO 50 49 54 60 66 75 79 76 74 69 62 55 51 45 42 41 41 12HR AGO 50 47 46 52 58 67 71 68 66 61 54 47 43 37 34 33 33 6HR AGO 50 44 41 40 46 55 59 56 54 49 42 35 31 25 22 21 21 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT