* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OLIVIA EP172018 09/08/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 75 69 66 64 61 60 59 55 55 50 46 41 36 34 33 32 31 V (KT) LAND 75 69 66 64 61 60 59 55 55 50 46 41 36 34 33 32 31 V (KT) LGEM 75 70 66 62 61 60 61 61 61 58 54 48 43 40 38 36 35 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 5 3 2 7 6 7 10 14 16 18 22 28 27 29 28 31 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -2 -3 -5 -2 0 2 6 9 8 10 9 2 -2 -8 -10 SHEAR DIR 340 11 21 307 311 347 293 255 261 252 256 244 244 253 253 243 235 SST (C) 25.3 25.3 25.0 25.5 25.6 26.1 26.2 26.3 26.7 27.1 27.0 27.4 28.0 27.9 28.1 28.3 28.1 POT. INT. (KT) 117 117 114 119 120 125 125 126 131 135 134 138 144 143 146 148 146 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.2 -51.9 -51.9 -52.2 -52.2 -52.2 -51.8 -52.2 -52.0 -52.4 -52.6 -53.0 -53.5 -54.2 -54.8 -54.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.7 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.2 -0.1 0.1 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 6 6 7 7 8 8 8 8 9 9 9 10 10 10 700-500 MB RH 35 33 33 33 31 30 27 26 30 31 36 36 38 36 38 35 38 MODEL VTX (KT) 22 20 21 21 20 20 20 18 19 17 15 13 10 10 9 8 7 850 MB ENV VOR 49 46 47 48 32 10 10 25 34 42 57 56 64 58 71 54 49 200 MB DIV 2 10 -4 1 4 13 5 16 -17 -9 -21 -3 -12 -5 -19 6 -1 700-850 TADV -4 -2 4 1 -4 1 0 0 -1 -4 -1 -3 -3 -2 0 3 5 LAND (KM) 1832 1688 1545 1412 1280 1038 835 635 436 234 18 148 290 337 470 676 901 LAT (DEG N) 21.3 21.5 21.6 21.7 21.7 21.8 21.7 21.6 21.2 20.8 20.2 19.6 19.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 137.3 138.7 140.1 141.4 142.7 145.1 147.1 149.1 151.0 153.0 155.3 157.7 159.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 13 12 12 10 9 9 10 11 11 11 9 9 11 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 4 8 6 25 28 38 35 28 21 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 583 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 34.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -9. -11. -14. -15. -17. -17. -18. -18. -18. -19. -20. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. -1. -4. -6. -8. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -10. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -5. -4. -7. -10. -12. -14. -13. -12. -12. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -8. -8. -6. -5. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -6. -9. -11. -14. -15. -16. -20. -20. -25. -29. -34. -39. -41. -42. -43. -44. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 21.3 137.3 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP172018 OLIVIA 09/08/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 42.5 30.0 to 135.0 0.12 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.17 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 2.6 -30.0 to 145.0 0.19 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 13.2 28.1 to 8.6 0.76 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 781.4 742.0 to -74.0 0.00 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.72 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.7 34.4 to 2.3 0.61 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 3.0 to 94.0 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 44.4 56.6 to 0.0 0.22 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.0 to -2.0 0.39 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172018 OLIVIA 09/08/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##