* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * NORMAN EP162018 09/08/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 50 47 44 41 39 37 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 55 50 47 44 41 39 37 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 55 52 48 44 40 33 27 23 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 48 48 46 49 54 43 27 22 31 28 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 3 4 1 -5 1 2 -2 -4 -5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 237 239 239 239 239 234 254 308 353 30 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.9 26.0 26.0 25.6 25.3 24.8 24.6 24.0 23.5 22.9 22.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 122 123 123 118 115 110 108 101 95 89 86 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -53.0 -53.1 -52.8 -52.6 -53.6 -53.4 -54.3 -55.1 -55.9 -55.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.4 1.2 -0.1 -1.0 -1.2 -0.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 5 5 4 5 4 4 4 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 37 35 35 35 33 30 28 30 34 40 45 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 17 17 18 16 16 18 17 15 12 8 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -9 -10 -13 -19 -17 -22 -38 -75 -103 -132 -121 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -3 -2 15 25 3 26 -25 -42 -45 -37 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 22 23 15 10 12 9 8 5 2 -1 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 558 615 677 751 823 986 1143 1280 1391 1456 1529 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 25.2 26.0 26.8 27.6 28.4 30.0 31.5 32.9 34.1 34.9 35.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 153.4 153.8 154.2 154.4 154.5 154.5 154.4 154.5 154.9 155.6 156.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 8 8 8 8 7 7 6 5 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):335/ 8 CX,CY: -2/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 652 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 29.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -14. -17. -19. -21. -23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -4. -5. -7. -10. -14. -20. -30. -40. -44. -48. -51. -55. -60. -66. -70. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 10. 9. 7. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 7. 7. 5. 4. 2. -1. -3. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -6. -7. -10. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. -0. -1. 0. 0. -3. -7. -12. -15. -14. -13. -12. -11. -10. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -9. -9. -8. -6. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -5. -8. -11. -14. -16. -18. -26. -40. -60. -72. -78. -84. -90. -96.-104.-108. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 25.2 153.4 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP162018 NORMAN 09/08/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 65.3 30.0 to 135.0 0.34 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.25 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 7.6 -30.0 to 145.0 0.21 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 64.0 28.1 to 8.6 0.00 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 481.2 742.0 to -74.0 0.32 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.92 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 34.4 to 2.3 999.00 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 3.0 to 94.0 0.00 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 78.8 56.6 to 0.0 0.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.0 to -2.0 999.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP162018 NORMAN 09/08/18 06 UTC ## ## ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING