* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NORMAN EP162018 09/03/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 110 104 99 94 89 78 69 63 59 55 50 45 38 29 22 N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 110 104 99 94 89 78 69 63 59 55 50 45 38 29 22 N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 110 104 97 90 84 74 67 63 59 54 49 44 37 31 26 21 18 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 7 7 6 7 10 14 15 13 22 25 34 41 46 48 54 50 41 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 9 5 2 2 0 7 2 3 3 3 1 6 -1 0 -2 0 SHEAR DIR 142 156 133 136 167 210 227 237 227 224 215 220 218 225 230 222 225 SST (C) 26.4 26.8 26.9 26.2 26.5 26.6 26.4 26.2 26.2 26.2 25.7 25.6 25.9 25.5 25.1 24.6 24.3 POT. INT. (KT) 130 134 135 127 130 130 128 125 125 125 120 119 121 117 113 108 105 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.9 -52.1 -51.6 -51.6 -52.1 -51.6 -52.1 -51.9 -52.2 -52.1 -52.8 -52.9 -53.7 -53.8 -53.9 -54.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.9 0.9 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 6 5 5 5 5 5 4 3 3 700-500 MB RH 50 49 49 52 52 49 46 44 42 41 42 42 42 42 34 32 29 MODEL VTX (KT) 28 26 25 26 26 23 22 22 22 22 22 22 20 17 17 14 14 850 MB ENV VOR 101 84 75 61 58 57 59 56 62 41 36 15 19 13 14 13 30 200 MB DIV 32 18 22 29 22 12 15 11 5 27 32 28 13 15 35 8 1 700-850 TADV -5 -2 -5 -5 -1 1 2 5 5 15 18 30 28 17 7 -3 -17 LAND (KM) 2155 2033 1853 1689 1526 1246 1022 824 670 604 584 620 689 752 886 1052 1209 LAT (DEG N) 18.8 19.2 19.5 19.8 20.1 20.5 20.9 21.3 22.0 23.0 24.1 25.5 26.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 133.7 135.4 137.1 138.7 140.2 142.9 145.1 147.1 148.9 150.3 151.6 152.8 153.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 17 16 16 15 13 12 10 9 8 8 8 9 8 7 8 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 1 4 5 0 3 4 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 18 CX,CY: -16/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 115 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 492 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 83.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -6. -9. -15. -23. -31. -38. -44. -49. -53. -55. -57. -59. -63. -68. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -1. -1. -2. -4. -9. -15. -22. -29. -33. -36. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 4. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -7. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -2. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -7. -8. -9. -8. -10. -11. -11. -12. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -6. -11. -16. -21. -32. -41. -47. -51. -55. -60. -65. -72. -81. -88. -98.-104. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 110. LAT, LON: 18.8 133.7 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP162018 NORMAN 09/03/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 21.3 30.0 to 135.0 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.25 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 24.6 -30.0 to 145.0 0.31 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 23.1 28.1 to 8.6 0.25 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 916.6 742.0 to -74.0 0.00 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 110.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.16 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.3 34.4 to 2.3 0.75 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 2.6 3.0 to 94.0 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.0 to -2.0 0.59 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 0.2% 0.5% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP162018 NORMAN 09/03/18 06 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 1 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##