* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FLORENCE AL062018 09/02/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 44 44 44 44 44 44 44 44 45 47 48 54 55 64 66 76 V (KT) LAND 45 44 44 44 44 44 44 44 44 45 47 48 54 55 64 66 76 V (KT) LGEM 45 44 43 43 43 43 43 42 41 40 42 45 49 55 64 76 88 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 9 11 14 14 19 15 21 13 18 14 18 10 9 3 7 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 3 2 1 1 1 3 3 10 6 5 2 1 1 0 0 -5 SHEAR DIR 234 233 230 241 238 236 225 237 248 258 269 269 291 275 100 204 160 SST (C) 25.3 25.6 25.7 25.8 26.0 26.1 26.1 26.1 27.0 27.3 27.7 28.5 28.3 28.8 29.1 29.3 29.5 POT. INT. (KT) 109 112 112 113 115 115 115 115 124 128 133 143 140 147 152 156 160 ADJ. POT. INT. 105 107 107 108 108 107 107 107 114 117 120 128 123 129 133 135 138 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.2 -53.3 -53.3 -53.1 -53.2 -53.0 -53.2 -53.1 -54.0 -54.1 -54.4 -54.7 -55.1 -54.9 -54.6 -53.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.2 0.2 0.9 1.1 TH_E DEV (C) 4 5 5 5 6 7 8 8 9 10 11 11 11 10 10 10 10 700-500 MB RH 60 58 58 56 55 53 51 50 48 47 46 47 49 52 54 49 48 MODEL VTX (KT) 21 21 21 22 21 21 19 19 18 18 18 17 20 20 25 25 31 850 MB ENV VOR 128 124 115 111 104 87 66 47 27 8 -4 -26 -29 -26 -18 -13 14 200 MB DIV -1 5 17 14 19 5 21 16 27 19 40 -4 24 6 28 -5 24 700-850 TADV 7 8 7 13 12 9 16 18 14 17 9 4 3 0 1 0 0 LAND (KM) 1771 1927 2083 2103 2033 1920 1845 1818 1793 1687 1524 1405 1310 1242 1196 1177 1172 LAT (DEG N) 17.1 17.4 17.6 17.9 18.2 18.7 19.3 20.1 21.0 21.9 22.9 23.8 24.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 33.9 35.3 36.8 38.1 39.5 41.8 43.9 46.0 48.0 50.0 51.9 53.5 55.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 14 14 14 13 12 11 10 11 10 10 10 8 8 7 8 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 1 4 3 1 9 13 13 22 20 23 24 29 38 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 15 CX,CY: -13/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 656 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 60.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. 11. 11. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 1. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -7. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -13. -9. -9. -4. -4. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 2. 3. 9. 10. 19. 21. 31. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 17.1 33.9 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062018 FLORENCE 09/02/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.53 2.3 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 22.0 41.0 to 7.4 0.56 1.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.2 0.0 to 147.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.8 33.3 to 3.1 0.38 0.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.56 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 61.9 30.0 to 128.0 0.33 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.9 2.6 to -2.7 0.12 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 10.8 -28.0 to 171.0 0.19 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 246.4 814.0 to -65.0 0.65 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 95.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.1% 9.6% 6.9% 5.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.2% 3.3% 1.5% 1.3% 1.0% 3.7% 2.8% 1.6% Bayesian: 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.6% 4.4% 2.8% 2.4% 0.3% 1.2% 0.9% 0.5% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062018 FLORENCE 09/02/2018 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 44 44 44 44 44 44 44 44 45 47 48 54 55 64 66 76 18HR AGO 45 44 44 44 44 44 44 44 44 45 47 48 54 55 64 66 76 12HR AGO 45 42 41 41 41 41 41 41 41 42 44 45 51 52 61 63 73 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 35 35 35 35 35 36 38 39 45 46 55 57 67 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT