* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NORMAN EP162018 09/02/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 85 84 85 85 82 75 70 64 61 57 54 55 54 51 46 41 37 V (KT) LAND 85 84 85 85 82 75 70 64 61 57 54 55 54 51 46 41 37 V (KT) LGEM 85 84 83 81 79 72 67 60 55 51 48 48 47 44 39 33 28 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 6 8 6 6 9 13 15 13 11 17 18 22 29 34 38 43 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 3 4 7 9 7 0 0 3 2 -1 1 4 8 6 8 6 SHEAR DIR 85 93 97 83 86 106 137 179 203 216 202 222 221 218 213 225 238 SST (C) 28.3 27.9 27.7 27.5 26.9 26.5 26.0 25.7 25.8 26.1 25.9 26.1 26.3 25.9 25.8 26.1 25.8 POT. INT. (KT) 148 145 143 141 135 130 125 121 122 125 122 124 126 122 121 125 121 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -51.7 -51.9 -51.6 -51.2 -52.2 -51.7 -52.3 -52.1 -52.1 -52.1 -52.1 -51.9 -52.1 -52.5 -53.0 -54.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.6 0.9 0.9 0.9 1.1 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.7 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 6 5 5 5 5 700-500 MB RH 63 60 61 59 60 57 54 54 50 49 46 46 45 46 45 46 46 MODEL VTX (KT) 27 27 28 29 27 25 25 23 23 22 21 22 22 21 20 18 18 850 MB ENV VOR 105 110 108 109 119 101 75 69 52 44 43 48 38 38 16 12 20 200 MB DIV 25 12 24 47 32 4 19 10 0 21 18 17 38 38 35 21 39 700-850 TADV -2 -5 -10 -9 -4 -4 2 3 2 2 5 5 13 15 24 28 19 LAND (KM) 1654 1729 1811 1905 2008 2132 1800 1516 1258 1036 855 713 585 502 447 467 505 LAT (DEG N) 16.5 16.8 17.1 17.5 17.9 18.7 19.5 20.1 20.7 21.2 21.7 22.1 22.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 125.5 126.9 128.3 129.9 131.4 134.5 137.6 140.3 142.8 145.0 146.9 148.5 150.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 14 15 15 15 15 15 13 11 10 8 8 8 10 10 10 9 HEAT CONTENT 16 11 22 18 6 2 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 573 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 5.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. -2. -7. -12. -17. -20. -23. -25. -27. -29. -31. -33. -36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -1. -4. -8. -12. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -6. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -0. -0. -3. -10. -15. -21. -24. -28. -31. -30. -31. -34. -39. -44. -48. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 85. LAT, LON: 16.5 125.5 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP162018 NORMAN 09/02/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 57.4 30.0 to 135.0 0.26 2.3 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.25 2.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 28.0 -30.0 to 145.0 0.33 2.2 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 22.3 28.1 to 8.6 0.30 1.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 452.6 742.0 to -74.0 0.35 -2.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 85.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.56 3.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.0 34.4 to 2.3 0.79 4.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 14.6 3.0 to 94.0 0.13 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.0 to -2.0 0.53 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 12.2% 17.5% 15.1% 11.8% 9.5% 10.6% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.6% 7.8% 4.1% 1.9% 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 5.3% 8.5% 6.4% 4.6% 3.3% 3.7% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP162018 NORMAN 09/02/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##