* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NORMAN EP162018 09/01/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 105 98 93 90 86 82 76 71 69 64 63 61 62 64 61 59 53 V (KT) LAND 105 98 93 90 86 82 76 71 69 64 63 61 62 64 61 59 53 V (KT) LGEM 105 100 96 92 89 83 76 67 60 55 52 51 52 54 53 49 45 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 22 26 21 16 17 16 16 18 14 9 6 4 5 14 19 29 30 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 2 6 3 4 5 3 3 0 2 3 0 4 5 5 5 SHEAR DIR 58 51 58 74 75 80 99 127 143 162 196 222 208 213 222 213 229 SST (C) 28.7 28.7 28.6 28.6 28.4 27.8 26.9 26.2 26.1 25.8 26.3 25.8 26.1 26.0 26.2 26.2 25.9 POT. INT. (KT) 151 151 150 151 149 144 135 127 126 122 126 121 124 123 125 125 121 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -51.9 -52.0 -51.6 -51.4 -52.0 -51.6 -52.2 -51.7 -52.0 -51.7 -51.9 -51.8 -51.8 -51.4 -51.5 -51.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.9 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.8 0.5 0.6 0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 700-500 MB RH 66 63 64 64 65 62 57 55 53 51 48 45 43 45 43 43 42 MODEL VTX (KT) 27 27 27 28 27 29 28 26 26 24 23 22 23 25 23 23 20 850 MB ENV VOR 83 89 86 92 102 108 109 91 77 76 73 74 63 54 33 31 27 200 MB DIV 13 25 30 34 23 40 33 12 21 1 2 22 33 14 55 40 24 700-850 TADV 0 -3 -2 -1 -2 -6 0 1 1 1 3 0 3 3 11 16 13 LAND (KM) 1359 1432 1507 1591 1678 1826 2021 2145 1845 1579 1349 1164 985 818 699 630 583 LAT (DEG N) 16.4 16.3 16.2 16.3 16.4 17.0 17.7 18.5 19.1 19.7 20.2 20.7 21.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 121.8 122.7 123.5 124.6 125.7 128.4 131.4 134.4 137.2 139.7 141.9 143.7 145.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 9 11 12 14 15 14 13 11 10 9 9 9 9 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 15 15 16 18 17 25 6 1 1 0 1 0 2 0 0 1 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):250/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 115 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 628 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -6. -13. -21. -28. -34. -38. -42. -43. -45. -47. -50. -54. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -4. -9. -11. -14. -15. -13. -11. -7. -4. -2. -2. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 0. 2. 1. -0. -1. -4. -5. -6. -5. -2. -4. -4. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -7. -12. -15. -19. -23. -29. -34. -36. -41. -42. -44. -43. -41. -44. -46. -52. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 105. LAT, LON: 16.4 121.8 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP162018 NORMAN 09/01/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 45.4 30.0 to 135.0 0.15 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.17 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 25.0 -30.0 to 145.0 0.31 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 31.2 28.1 to 8.6 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 445.8 742.0 to -74.0 0.36 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 105.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.24 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.2 34.4 to 2.3 0.82 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 16.2 3.0 to 94.0 0.15 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.0 2.0 to -2.0 0.74 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 0.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 7.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 2.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP162018 NORMAN 09/01/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##