* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SIXTEEN EP162018 08/28/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 37 41 46 53 63 71 75 80 81 83 86 84 83 84 84 V (KT) LAND 30 34 37 41 46 53 63 71 75 80 81 83 86 84 83 84 84 V (KT) LGEM 30 33 36 39 42 49 54 59 63 66 69 74 77 76 74 72 72 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 3 2 3 4 4 4 9 8 11 17 8 8 5 4 3 3 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -3 -4 -1 -1 0 -3 -3 0 -1 -4 -1 -1 -3 -1 0 -4 SHEAR DIR 68 56 39 51 77 166 94 86 64 65 57 63 47 63 106 296 4 SST (C) 29.5 29.5 29.4 29.1 29.0 28.7 28.6 28.5 27.9 27.8 27.4 27.4 27.0 26.8 27.1 26.8 26.8 POT. INT. (KT) 159 159 158 155 154 151 150 149 143 142 138 138 135 133 136 133 132 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.2 -53.3 -53.5 -53.3 -52.9 -52.7 -52.5 -52.3 -51.6 -51.7 -51.4 -51.7 -51.8 -52.2 -52.1 -52.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.7 0.9 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.6 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 7 6 6 5 5 5 4 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 700-500 MB RH 72 70 67 66 65 67 65 60 59 56 54 53 51 49 47 44 40 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 13 12 13 14 16 19 21 22 25 26 28 31 29 28 27 25 850 MB ENV VOR -1 11 11 11 17 24 34 40 58 72 81 110 126 137 145 140 124 200 MB DIV 15 27 33 48 47 57 48 5 -22 -3 3 3 -15 -33 5 -5 13 700-850 TADV -2 -1 -2 -3 -3 2 -1 0 2 -2 -3 -3 -8 -5 -3 -8 0 LAND (KM) 660 657 667 701 744 837 968 1123 1310 1513 1689 1866 2077 2170 1873 1602 1332 LAT (DEG N) 17.3 17.7 18.0 18.3 18.5 18.8 18.7 18.5 18.2 17.7 17.3 17.1 17.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 112.1 112.9 113.7 114.6 115.4 117.2 119.0 120.8 122.8 124.9 126.9 129.0 131.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 9 8 8 9 9 9 10 10 10 11 13 13 13 12 12 HEAT CONTENT 28 23 19 15 14 12 13 21 9 8 6 9 6 6 13 3 9 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 9 CX,CY: -5/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 556 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 75.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 21.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. 0. 1. 6. 11. 17. 23. 26. 28. 30. 31. 32. 33. 33. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 7. 6. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 12. 14. 18. 19. 21. 22. 18. 15. 14. 11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 11. 16. 23. 33. 41. 45. 50. 51. 53. 56. 54. 53. 54. 54. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 17.3 112.1 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP162018 SIXTEEN 08/28/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 127.2 30.0 to 135.0 0.93 9.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.42 4.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 34.0 -30.0 to 145.0 0.37 2.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 11.8 28.1 to 8.6 0.83 5.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 118.6 742.0 to -74.0 0.76 -6.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.15 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.2 34.4 to 2.3 0.57 3.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 19.8 3.0 to 94.0 0.18 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.2 2.0 to -2.0 0.79 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 35% is 2.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 26% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 44% is 7.5 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 53% is 11.3 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 14.5% 34.6% 22.2% 18.1% 0.0% 25.8% 44.1% 53.0% Logistic: 11.8% 39.5% 31.9% 17.4% 9.8% 40.7% 41.4% 16.3% Bayesian: 0.4% 4.0% 0.5% 0.1% 0.1% 0.4% 0.4% 0.1% Consensus: 8.9% 26.0% 18.2% 11.9% 3.3% 22.3% 28.6% 23.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP162018 SIXTEEN 08/28/18 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##