* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * LANE EP142018 08/25/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 45 40 37 33 29 24 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 50 45 40 37 33 29 24 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 50 45 41 37 34 29 25 21 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 29 30 31 37 40 38 42 44 54 54 44 32 11 4 10 12 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 6 6 4 2 2 6 10 8 3 6 -1 0 -9 -4 -7 -1 SHEAR DIR 267 270 265 262 263 268 250 231 222 210 216 205 205 230 310 261 258 SST (C) 27.5 27.6 27.6 27.6 27.8 28.0 28.0 27.9 27.6 27.6 27.6 27.1 25.7 25.2 25.3 24.7 24.4 POT. INT. (KT) 136 138 138 138 141 143 143 142 139 140 140 136 122 117 117 110 107 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.5 -53.6 -54.0 -54.3 -54.6 -54.6 -54.0 -54.0 -54.1 -54.6 -55.5 -55.6 -56.2 -56.6 -57.0 -57.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.5 -0.3 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.2 -0.3 0.4 0.2 0.0 -0.5 -0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 9 8 7 7 6 5 3 700-500 MB RH 54 51 48 46 44 44 49 53 58 61 64 61 56 51 54 66 70 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 13 12 11 10 10 10 11 11 10 10 15 17 16 13 11 14 850 MB ENV VOR 32 36 34 43 44 59 76 81 92 85 69 55 36 -17 -11 24 55 200 MB DIV -14 -17 0 -3 -12 25 62 60 41 59 62 55 16 11 45 50 70 700-850 TADV 3 0 0 -2 -1 -1 0 5 8 17 17 33 17 5 7 6 45 LAND (KM) 178 174 183 196 190 270 391 508 616 712 861 1076 1366 1713 1988 2206 2431 LAT (DEG N) 19.7 19.9 20.0 20.1 20.1 20.1 20.4 20.7 21.5 22.7 24.4 26.6 28.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 158.3 158.8 159.2 159.9 160.5 162.1 163.7 165.0 166.2 167.1 168.2 169.5 171.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 5 6 7 8 7 6 7 9 11 14 15 15 12 10 11 HEAT CONTENT 35 25 19 19 26 39 29 21 19 20 13 7 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):350/ 3 CX,CY: 0/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 574 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 44.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 11. 10. 9. 7. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -13. -21. -31. -41. -49. -52. -50. -47. -45. -46. -47. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. -1. 2. 0. -2. -4. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -5. -10. -13. -17. -21. -26. -31. -38. -43. -48. -42. -38. -36. -38. -40. -36. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 19.7 158.3 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP142018 LANE 08/25/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 88.2 30.0 to 135.0 0.55 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.17 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -9.2 -30.0 to 145.0 0.12 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 47.7 28.1 to 8.6 0.00 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 331.0 742.0 to -74.0 0.50 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.76 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 34.4 to 2.3 999.00 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 24.8 3.0 to 94.0 0.24 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 10.6 56.6 to 0.0 0.81 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.0 to -2.0 999.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142018 LANE 08/25/18 12 UTC ## ## ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING