* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * LANE EP142018 08/20/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 110 110 110 109 107 103 101 100 99 96 89 85 82 77 70 63 56 V (KT) LAND 110 110 110 109 107 103 101 100 99 96 89 85 82 77 70 63 56 V (KT) LGEM 110 110 109 107 105 100 96 92 89 84 78 72 68 63 57 50 45 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 5 2 5 6 2 3 2 8 6 10 16 26 36 45 52 53 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -2 0 -1 0 -2 1 3 1 5 9 9 10 5 1 -3 0 SHEAR DIR 289 331 13 189 212 205 230 140 206 226 249 272 250 252 261 257 247 SST (C) 28.7 28.4 28.1 27.9 27.8 27.9 28.1 28.0 27.7 27.4 27.7 27.8 27.6 27.8 27.7 27.6 27.2 POT. INT. (KT) 152 148 145 143 142 142 144 143 140 137 140 141 139 140 140 140 135 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.6 -52.9 -53.3 -53.5 -52.9 -53.5 -53.0 -53.3 -52.8 -53.0 -52.9 -53.2 -53.2 -53.6 -54.0 -53.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 8 8 8 8 7 8 8 8 8 8 9 9 9 10 10 700-500 MB RH 58 58 53 52 55 59 62 61 60 60 57 54 44 42 39 34 35 MODEL VTX (KT) 18 19 19 20 20 23 24 25 26 26 21 19 19 18 16 14 12 850 MB ENV VOR 38 45 47 50 48 55 61 67 73 72 65 48 48 62 87 83 68 200 MB DIV 43 42 51 54 42 55 38 61 56 73 78 36 9 -1 -2 -3 1 700-850 TADV 2 0 0 -1 0 0 1 5 6 5 7 13 0 -2 -4 -1 -5 LAND (KM) 992 905 824 750 682 557 458 382 343 333 370 288 195 193 307 511 707 LAT (DEG N) 13.7 13.8 13.9 14.1 14.2 14.5 14.9 15.5 16.2 17.0 18.0 19.2 20.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 147.7 148.7 149.7 150.6 151.5 153.2 154.7 156.0 157.2 158.2 159.2 160.1 161.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 9 9 9 8 7 7 6 7 7 7 6 6 8 9 8 HEAT CONTENT 20 17 15 13 12 18 35 27 24 33 32 20 25 30 21 16 11 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 105 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 636 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -4. -9. -16. -24. -30. -36. -40. -42. -43. -43. -44. -47. -50. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 3. 6. 8. 10. 11. 10. 8. 4. -1. -4. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -8. -8. -7. -5. -5. -4. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 6. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 8. 10. 10. 3. 0. 0. -1. -3. -4. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -0. -0. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. -1. -3. -7. -9. -10. -11. -14. -21. -25. -28. -33. -40. -47. -54. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 110. LAT, LON: 13.7 147.7 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP142018 LANE 08/20/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 36.0 30.0 to 135.0 0.06 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.42 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 46.4 -30.0 to 145.0 0.44 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 14.5 28.1 to 8.6 0.70 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 639.6 742.0 to -74.0 0.13 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 110.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.16 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 34.4 to 2.3 999.00 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 15.4 3.0 to 94.0 0.14 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 41.0 56.6 to 0.0 0.28 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.0 to -2.0 999.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142018 LANE 08/20/18 12 UTC ## ## ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING