* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LANE EP142018 08/18/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 120 117 110 105 101 93 87 84 81 80 76 74 74 73 72 71 68 V (KT) LAND 120 117 110 105 101 93 87 84 81 80 76 74 74 73 72 71 68 V (KT) LGEM 120 116 109 103 98 90 86 83 81 78 73 68 63 59 57 54 52 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 15 14 14 10 11 10 8 10 13 13 14 16 14 15 22 31 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 2 1 0 -2 -4 -3 2 4 8 6 3 -2 0 4 9 7 SHEAR DIR 268 261 269 261 272 267 300 297 283 281 266 252 253 251 234 238 241 SST (C) 28.5 28.4 28.4 28.3 28.2 28.3 28.6 28.0 27.9 28.0 27.9 27.8 27.6 27.8 27.5 27.6 27.7 POT. INT. (KT) 150 149 149 148 147 147 150 144 143 144 143 142 140 142 139 140 141 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.3 -53.4 -53.3 -53.4 -53.3 -53.5 -53.1 -53.4 -53.2 -53.4 -53.0 -53.2 -53.3 -53.6 -53.3 -53.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 8 7 8 8 9 8 9 8 8 7 8 8 9 9 700-500 MB RH 63 61 60 59 60 59 53 52 53 59 64 69 69 67 62 56 51 MODEL VTX (KT) 18 18 15 16 17 19 20 21 21 23 21 21 23 23 22 20 20 850 MB ENV VOR -1 -3 0 4 15 30 32 37 40 43 33 47 43 46 35 39 41 200 MB DIV 51 57 41 27 15 15 34 18 50 60 36 52 60 77 61 64 38 700-850 TADV -4 -4 -4 -3 0 1 2 0 4 2 2 4 1 3 4 0 -4 LAND (KM) 1873 1742 1611 1498 1385 1175 989 820 678 559 453 386 404 493 530 549 660 LAT (DEG N) 12.4 12.7 13.0 13.3 13.5 13.8 14.1 14.3 14.5 14.7 15.0 15.5 16.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 138.9 140.1 141.3 142.4 143.4 145.5 147.4 149.3 151.1 152.8 154.5 156.3 158.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 12 12 11 10 10 9 9 9 8 8 9 9 9 10 11 10 HEAT CONTENT 11 13 17 24 23 21 20 18 16 18 25 21 20 26 29 23 17 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 115 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 635 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 89.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -5. -12. -20. -29. -36. -43. -47. -50. -50. -51. -52. -55. -58. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -6. -8. -9. -9. -8. -4. 0. 3. 5. 4. 3. 2. 3. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -10. -11. -12. -13. -14. -14. -14. -13. -11. -10. -8. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -2. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 3. 3. 5. 4. 3. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -3. -10. -15. -19. -27. -33. -36. -39. -40. -44. -46. -46. -47. -48. -49. -52. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 120. LAT, LON: 12.4 138.9 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP142018 LANE 08/18/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 28.6 30.0 to 135.0 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.42 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 38.2 -30.0 to 145.0 0.39 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 22.9 28.1 to 8.6 0.27 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 518.0 742.0 to -74.0 0.27 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 120.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.2 34.4 to 2.3 0.82 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 17.6 3.0 to 94.0 0.16 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.0 to -2.0 0.38 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 0.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 9.3% 11.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.2% 4.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142018 LANE 08/18/18 18 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 1 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##