* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LANE EP142018 08/18/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 120 123 121 116 110 98 87 81 80 79 75 74 72 73 73 68 63 V (KT) LAND 120 123 121 116 110 98 87 81 80 79 75 74 72 73 73 68 63 V (KT) LGEM 120 122 118 112 105 93 85 84 83 80 74 70 67 66 64 59 52 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 10 13 14 11 11 15 8 6 13 14 17 11 5 10 18 34 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 2 1 1 -2 -4 0 6 7 6 -1 -2 0 9 8 6 SHEAR DIR 291 268 265 274 276 274 295 303 236 256 251 262 255 221 221 220 234 SST (C) 28.5 28.5 28.4 28.4 28.3 28.0 28.6 28.0 28.0 27.9 28.0 27.8 27.6 27.6 27.7 27.5 27.6 POT. INT. (KT) 151 151 149 149 148 144 150 144 144 143 144 141 139 140 141 139 140 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.8 -53.3 -53.5 -53.6 -53.1 -53.5 -53.1 -53.3 -52.9 -53.2 -53.0 -53.3 -52.7 -52.9 -52.9 -53.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 8 7 7 8 8 8 9 8 8 8 8 8 9 9 700-500 MB RH 64 64 61 60 59 60 57 52 52 54 59 63 67 66 63 56 49 MODEL VTX (KT) 17 17 17 16 16 17 16 18 20 21 21 22 22 24 22 18 15 850 MB ENV VOR 0 3 2 8 8 21 32 32 41 44 39 56 62 48 44 47 56 200 MB DIV 52 59 55 41 34 27 29 36 61 48 45 33 62 103 131 86 33 700-850 TADV -5 -4 -5 -3 -2 1 0 2 4 3 3 5 3 1 0 0 -5 LAND (KM) 2019 1878 1737 1613 1490 1275 1075 884 723 600 479 381 369 418 534 519 568 LAT (DEG N) 12.2 12.5 12.8 13.1 13.3 13.8 14.1 14.4 14.6 14.7 15.0 15.5 15.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 137.5 138.8 140.1 141.3 142.4 144.4 146.4 148.4 150.3 152.1 153.8 155.5 157.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 13 11 11 10 10 10 9 9 8 8 7 9 10 10 9 HEAT CONTENT 11 11 12 17 24 19 24 16 19 16 22 23 19 22 27 30 18 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 100 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 645 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -5. -12. -20. -29. -36. -43. -47. -50. -50. -51. -52. -55. -58. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -4. 1. 4. 5. 4. 3. 3. 4. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -9. -10. -12. -13. -15. -14. -14. -13. -11. -10. -8. PERSISTENCE 5. 7. 7. 6. 3. 1. -2. -4. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. -5. -5. -4. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. 1. 4. 5. 5. 6. 5. 6. 4. -0. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 1. -4. -10. -22. -33. -39. -40. -41. -44. -46. -48. -47. -47. -52. -57. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 120. LAT, LON: 12.2 137.5 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP142018 LANE 08/18/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 29.5 30.0 to 135.0 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 20.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.67 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 48.2 -30.0 to 145.0 0.45 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 22.1 28.1 to 8.6 0.31 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 523.6 742.0 to -74.0 0.27 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 120.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.3 34.4 to 2.3 0.88 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 15.0 3.0 to 94.0 0.13 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 6.0 56.6 to 0.0 0.89 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.0 to -2.0 0.44 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 15.1% 17.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 16.4% 6.6% 4.8% 4.0% 2.3% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% Bayesian: 4.7% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 12.1% 8.1% 1.6% 1.3% 0.8% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142018 LANE 08/18/18 12 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 1 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##