* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HECTOR EP102018 08/12/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 85 78 72 67 66 67 68 69 71 72 68 69 69 72 74 67 58 V (KT) LAND 85 78 72 67 66 67 68 69 71 72 68 69 69 72 74 67 58 V (KT) LGEM 85 80 75 70 67 63 63 65 67 66 65 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 24 27 20 16 13 8 5 4 9 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 41 21 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 0 3 4 3 0 0 -6 -4 -5 -8 N/A N/A N/A N/A 0 -6 SHEAR DIR 199 214 227 228 221 240 100 111 153 154 63 N/A N/A N/A N/A 239 249 SST (C) 27.6 27.4 27.5 27.4 27.6 26.7 27.3 27.7 27.0 26.8 26.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 141 139 140 139 142 132 139 143 135 133 133 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.6 -52.5 -52.2 -52.2 -52.7 -52.4 -53.0 -52.6 -52.7 -52.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A -48.7 -47.7 200 MB VXT (C) 1.0 1.0 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A 0 0 700-500 MB RH 47 48 52 51 51 53 52 54 54 52 50 N/A N/A N/A N/A 46 51 MODEL VTX (KT) 20 19 19 18 18 18 17 17 17 18 17 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 21 14 6 -5 -16 -28 -30 -42 -45 -73 -99 N/A N/A N/A N/A 55 91 200 MB DIV 6 -13 -8 1 15 -4 14 17 3 -91 -47 N/A N/A N/A N/A 354 256 700-850 TADV 13 22 16 10 7 10 -1 3 0 2 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A -57 13 LAND (KM) 1244 1366 1492 1630 1768 2073 2386 2699 2744 2469 2139 N/A N/A N/A N/A 847 685 LAT (DEG N) 21.7 22.5 23.2 23.9 24.5 25.6 26.6 27.7 28.8 30.0 31.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 172.3 173.5 174.7 176.0 177.3 180.2 183.2 186.2 189.2 192.1 194.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 13 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A 17 17 HEAT CONTENT 12 11 10 7 8 3 9 8 3 1 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 13 CX,CY: -8/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 95 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 552 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 62.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 0. -2. -7. -10. -14. -17. -19. -20. -21. -22. -22. -24. -26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -5. -7. -7. -7. -3. -1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. -5. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 1. -0. -0. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -0. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 3. 1. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -3. -2. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -5. -4. -3. -1. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -3. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -0. 1. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -7. -13. -18. -19. -18. -17. -16. -14. -13. -17. -16. -16. -13. -11. -18. -27. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 85. LAT, LON: 21.7 172.3 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP102018 HECTOR 08/12/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 55.4 30.0 to 135.0 0.24 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.17 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 0.2 -30.0 to 145.0 0.17 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 31.8 28.1 to 8.6 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 648.6 742.0 to -74.0 0.11 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 85.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.56 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.5 34.4 to 2.3 0.46 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 9.6 3.0 to 94.0 0.07 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.2 2.0 to -2.0 0.19 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102018 HECTOR 08/12/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##