* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HECTOR EP102018 08/01/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 50 53 57 61 67 72 74 77 78 76 77 78 80 82 82 86 V (KT) LAND 45 50 53 57 61 67 72 74 77 78 76 77 78 80 82 82 86 V (KT) LGEM 45 49 53 56 59 65 70 77 82 85 85 83 82 81 80 79 81 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 14 15 17 15 14 10 5 7 7 15 11 8 1 9 1 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 -1 -2 -2 -6 -4 -4 -3 -2 -2 0 5 5 2 7 0 SHEAR DIR 51 54 57 53 58 62 44 9 4 308 322 326 358 343 302 226 300 SST (C) 28.4 28.3 28.3 28.4 28.2 27.9 27.5 27.6 27.3 27.9 27.5 27.6 27.3 27.2 27.6 27.1 26.9 POT. INT. (KT) 149 148 148 149 147 144 140 141 138 144 139 140 137 136 140 135 133 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.2 -53.3 -53.5 -53.4 -53.5 -53.7 -53.3 -53.1 -52.6 -52.7 -52.7 -52.8 -52.3 -52.4 -52.0 -52.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.7 1.0 1.2 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 5 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 700-500 MB RH 64 63 61 59 59 59 57 58 58 56 53 56 64 65 63 63 62 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 14 14 14 15 16 16 17 20 21 22 23 23 24 26 25 29 850 MB ENV VOR -12 -5 3 -4 -8 14 14 27 29 52 35 39 33 18 0 -9 -22 200 MB DIV 45 71 66 46 44 13 40 41 -3 1 -14 14 -5 14 7 17 6 700-850 TADV -3 -5 -5 -4 -4 -4 -9 -9 -3 -3 -5 -3 1 5 0 0 4 LAND (KM) 1507 1556 1611 1684 1762 1950 2139 2315 2251 2014 1811 1629 1445 1253 1045 818 604 LAT (DEG N) 13.8 14.0 14.2 14.3 14.4 14.4 14.3 14.3 14.1 13.9 13.7 13.6 13.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 120.7 121.8 122.8 123.9 125.0 127.3 129.7 132.0 134.4 136.8 138.9 140.8 142.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 10 11 11 11 12 11 12 11 10 9 9 9 10 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 11 10 11 17 27 24 7 6 6 12 9 15 16 12 14 5 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 599 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 86.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 24.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 11. 13. 15. 16. 17. 17. 17. 17. 17. 18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 5. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 7. 7. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 2. 3. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 8. 11. 11. 12. 11. 11. 11. 10. 12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 2. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 5. 8. 12. 16. 23. 27. 29. 32. 33. 31. 32. 33. 35. 37. 37. 41. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 13.8 120.7 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP102018 HECTOR 08/01/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 102.9 30.0 to 135.0 0.69 6.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.50 4.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 54.4 -30.0 to 145.0 0.48 3.5 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 22.5 28.1 to 8.6 0.29 2.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 244.2 742.0 to -74.0 0.61 -5.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.61 3.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.7 34.4 to 2.3 0.58 3.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 15.2 3.0 to 94.0 0.13 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.0 to -2.0 0.58 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 2.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 25% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 25% is 4.3 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 14.5% 25.1% 21.6% 18.0% 12.5% 24.7% 25.5% 18.5% Logistic: 5.8% 11.5% 5.1% 3.0% 2.1% 1.9% 4.5% 4.1% Bayesian: 0.6% 3.4% 0.7% 0.2% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 7.0% 13.3% 9.1% 7.1% 5.0% 8.9% 10.0% 7.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102018 HECTOR 08/01/18 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##