* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SIX EP062018 06/28/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 36 41 45 52 60 66 65 61 60 52 48 44 40 39 39 V (KT) LAND 30 32 36 41 45 52 60 66 65 61 60 52 48 44 40 39 39 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 32 34 36 39 41 43 43 42 40 35 31 27 24 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 15 13 12 10 10 10 15 11 3 7 6 5 7 10 17 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 3 5 4 6 6 -1 0 -2 1 5 1 0 -1 2 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 50 53 50 47 58 64 67 74 92 259 286 211 187 251 224 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.9 28.9 28.8 28.5 28.1 27.3 26.7 26.4 25.6 24.7 24.9 23.4 23.8 23.6 23.6 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 154 154 153 150 146 136 130 127 119 110 112 96 100 98 98 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -54.0 -54.3 -53.8 -53.3 -53.6 -53.2 -53.7 -53.1 -53.4 -53.0 -52.9 -52.9 -53.1 -53.3 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.5 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.5 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 7 6 6 4 4 5 3 3 2 1 1 1 2 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 72 70 69 68 68 69 66 63 62 61 56 50 41 39 32 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 14 14 17 18 19 20 22 23 21 20 20 16 15 13 12 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 50 49 43 43 44 48 39 20 9 17 14 25 17 12 6 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 87 102 78 71 63 27 33 -1 -2 0 2 -13 -3 -22 -14 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 1 0 0 0 -2 -3 -2 -4 0 1 2 0 0 2 6 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 797 825 871 924 913 941 998 1061 1123 1223 1350 1450 1578 1734 1893 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 13.3 13.8 14.3 14.8 15.3 16.0 16.6 17.0 17.5 18.0 18.5 19.0 19.4 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 109.0 110.1 111.2 112.3 113.3 115.2 116.8 118.2 119.8 121.6 123.5 125.5 127.5 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 12 11 11 9 8 8 8 9 9 10 10 10 9 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 31 29 24 17 10 4 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 497 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 78.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 23.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 16. 20. 22. 23. 22. 20. 18. 16. 16. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 7. 7. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 11. 9. 8. 8. 2. 0. -1. -3. -3. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 6. 11. 15. 22. 30. 36. 35. 32. 30. 22. 18. 14. 10. 9. 9. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 13.3 109.0 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP062018 SIX 06/28/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 121.6 30.0 to 135.0 0.87 7.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.33 2.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 80.2 -30.0 to 145.0 0.63 4.2 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 25.6 28.1 to 8.6 0.13 0.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 107.2 742.0 to -74.0 0.78 -5.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.15 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.7 34.4 to 2.3 0.49 2.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 22.2 3.0 to 94.0 0.21 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.2 2.0 to -2.0 0.79 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 9.2% 19.5% 15.6% 12.0% 0.0% 16.1% 13.8% 12.8% Logistic: 1.7% 9.8% 4.7% 2.4% 0.4% 5.6% 4.3% 3.2% Bayesian: 0.2% 3.7% 1.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 3.7% 11.0% 7.1% 4.9% 0.1% 7.3% 6.0% 5.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062018 SIX 06/28/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##