* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BUD EP032018 06/11/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 70 76 82 89 92 96 93 89 79 70 63 54 46 39 35 32 29 V (KT) LAND 70 76 82 89 92 96 93 89 79 70 63 54 41 39 35 32 29 V (KT) LGEM 70 77 82 85 88 89 86 78 70 62 56 48 37 33 34 32 31 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 10 13 8 13 10 7 3 2 1 2 9 6 10 11 16 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 -1 -2 -3 -1 3 2 -1 -1 -2 -5 0 -2 4 -1 -4 SHEAR DIR 42 48 70 83 82 73 80 339 5 196 24 292 299 277 227 228 190 SST (C) 28.9 28.8 28.6 28.3 28.2 28.1 27.6 26.7 25.9 25.1 23.9 22.7 24.1 24.9 26.4 27.6 26.0 POT. INT. (KT) 153 152 149 146 144 142 137 128 120 112 100 87 101 109 126 138 122 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -51.6 -51.7 -51.3 -51.1 -51.6 -50.6 -51.2 -50.3 -51.3 -50.6 -50.9 -50.7 -50.6 -50.2 -50.3 -51.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.4 1.1 1.2 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 7 7 5 5 4 4 3 4 2 3 1 3 2 5 700-500 MB RH 85 84 82 79 77 78 74 72 68 66 63 65 64 65 56 49 43 MODEL VTX (KT) 22 21 23 25 25 25 25 26 23 21 20 17 15 12 9 7 5 850 MB ENV VOR 17 24 14 16 27 32 64 53 67 52 51 26 29 29 22 17 5 200 MB DIV 81 82 102 118 130 92 76 67 74 42 21 -13 -15 6 1 -5 -6 700-850 TADV -8 -10 -7 -6 -3 1 -3 0 -2 0 0 -2 -1 0 0 2 -4 LAND (KM) 317 304 300 281 275 285 282 284 315 223 89 12 -4 0 8 63 0 LAT (DEG N) 15.7 16.2 16.7 17.2 17.6 18.2 18.8 19.4 20.1 21.0 22.1 23.3 24.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 104.6 105.2 105.8 106.3 106.8 107.4 107.8 108.2 108.7 109.3 109.9 110.4 110.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 7 7 5 4 4 4 5 6 6 6 5 5 6 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 19 15 12 9 8 7 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 4 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 9 CX,CY: -5/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 544 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 43.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 1. -1. -3. -6. -9. -12. -15. -18. -20. -21. -22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 3. 5. 6. 8. 8. 8. 8. 7. 6. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 5. 5. 4. 2. 1. 1. 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 5. 1. -2. -4. -7. -9. -12. -13. -14. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 7. 11. 10. 6. 1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 6. 12. 19. 22. 26. 23. 19. 9. 0. -7. -16. -24. -31. -35. -38. -41. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 15.7 104.6 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP032018 BUD 06/11/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 78.8 30.0 to 135.0 0.47 6.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.58 7.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 102.6 -30.0 to 145.0 0.76 7.3 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 18.9 28.1 to 8.6 0.47 4.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 2.2 742.0 to -74.0 0.91 -10.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 70.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.80 6.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.9 34.4 to 2.3 0.79 6.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 12.6 3.0 to 94.0 0.11 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.0 to -2.0 0.35 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 29% is 4.7 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 47% is 3.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 31% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 23% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 29.4% 46.5% 30.7% 23.3% 14.6% 23.1% 14.9% 9.4% Logistic: 23.0% 46.4% 22.2% 13.6% 8.8% 5.3% 0.7% 0.4% Bayesian: 22.4% 31.9% 40.0% 33.8% 6.1% 9.1% 0.6% 0.0% Consensus: 24.9% 41.6% 30.9% 23.6% 9.8% 12.5% 5.4% 3.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032018 BUD 06/11/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##