* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ALETTA EP022018 06/06/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 40 45 50 56 65 72 80 82 80 81 75 67 57 49 43 36 V (KT) LAND 35 40 45 50 56 65 72 80 82 80 81 75 67 57 49 43 36 V (KT) LGEM 35 39 44 47 50 54 59 67 71 71 69 64 55 46 40 35 31 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 5 5 5 4 9 7 6 9 11 16 7 11 19 25 23 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 0 4 2 -6 4 10 4 -2 2 6 8 0 -7 -7 -2 SHEAR DIR 267 270 261 272 288 302 321 105 148 123 135 159 135 143 154 160 157 SST (C) 29.8 29.7 29.5 29.2 29.1 29.0 28.9 28.7 28.1 27.3 26.9 26.5 26.1 25.6 24.8 24.4 24.2 POT. INT. (KT) 162 160 158 155 154 152 152 149 143 134 130 126 122 117 108 104 102 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.4 -51.9 -51.2 -51.7 -51.8 -51.6 -51.3 -51.5 -50.9 -50.6 -49.9 -49.9 -50.4 -50.2 -50.4 -49.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 1.2 1.4 1.0 0.8 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 7 7 6 5 5 4 4 3 3 2 2 1 1 1 0 700-500 MB RH 71 72 71 69 68 68 62 61 62 61 57 59 52 54 48 42 41 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 18 20 20 22 24 26 30 31 31 35 34 30 26 22 19 17 850 MB ENV VOR 2 5 6 7 10 29 39 62 81 96 118 123 116 113 96 95 96 200 MB DIV 116 120 120 120 111 48 55 64 14 40 36 -23 -25 -9 -6 5 -18 700-850 TADV -6 -5 -5 -5 -4 -2 -11 -5 -2 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 558 584 616 634 657 715 778 857 856 821 806 808 814 838 855 903 945 LAT (DEG N) 14.1 14.2 14.3 14.4 14.5 14.7 14.9 15.1 15.6 16.2 16.7 17.2 17.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 106.2 106.8 107.4 108.0 108.5 109.6 110.6 111.7 112.6 113.3 114.0 114.8 115.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 5 4 5 5 5 4 HEAT CONTENT 39 35 29 24 22 21 23 25 16 5 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 640 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 76.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 50.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 16. 20. 23. 25. 26. 26. 26. 25. 23. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 4. 5. 5. 4. 2. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -8. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 11. 18. 22. 22. 27. 24. 17. 11. 6. 3. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 6. 9. 14. 12. 7. 2. -2. -4. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. -7. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 5. 10. 15. 21. 30. 37. 45. 47. 45. 46. 40. 32. 22. 14. 8. 1. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 14.1 106.2 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP022018 ALETTA 06/06/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 122.7 30.0 to 135.0 0.88 11.6 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.50 6.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 117.4 -30.0 to 145.0 0.84 8.2 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 18.1 28.1 to 8.6 0.51 4.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 112.0 742.0 to -74.0 0.77 -8.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.31 2.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.8 34.4 to 2.3 0.30 2.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 29.8 3.0 to 94.0 0.29 1.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.0 to -2.0 0.39 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 33% is 2.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 31% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 35% is 5.1 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 41% is 6.9 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 52% is 11.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 15.0% 33.2% 30.9% 23.9% 0.0% 34.5% 41.0% 51.6% Logistic: 15.7% 51.1% 44.6% 32.8% 7.2% 31.1% 12.2% 5.8% Bayesian: 12.8% 33.1% 33.9% 8.1% 0.4% 7.8% 4.6% 0.7% Consensus: 14.5% 39.1% 36.4% 21.6% 2.5% 24.5% 19.3% 19.4% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP022018 ALETTA 06/06/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##