* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PHILIPPE AL182017 10/29/17 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 37 40 41 42 38 29 24 20 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 35 32 38 39 40 36 27 29 29 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 35 32 35 34 32 26 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 31 41 46 56 60 49 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 2 4 3 4 7 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 223 218 214 210 210 213 220 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.2 25.4 27.2 26.5 26.9 20.7 13.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 144 114 133 126 130 88 74 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 144 113 133 124 126 83 71 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.5 -52.9 -52.3 -52.1 -50.9 -49.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 2 1 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 58 54 48 45 44 39 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 16 18 20 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 79 108 154 185 223 243 151 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 133 142 155 153 120 99 88 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 -10 -23 -81 -85 -109 -155 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 92 -59 173 314 214 274 -45 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 23.9 26.3 28.7 31.4 34.0 39.2 44.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 82.5 80.7 78.9 76.6 74.3 69.7 65.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 24 29 31 33 32 32 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 39 1 17 8 31 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 21 CX,CY: 0/ 21 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 775 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 26.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 9. 12. 14. 16. 16. 16. 16. 16. 15. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. -7. -18. -28. -37. -46. -52. -58. -67. -73. -76. -77. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -1. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 700-500 MB RH -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 13. 14. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -1. -4. -8. -9. -8. -6. -4. -1. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 6. 7. 3. -6. -11. -15. -17. -21. -24. -29. -36. -38. -38. -41. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 23.9 82.5 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL182017 PHILIPPE 10/29/17 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.67 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 62.2 41.0 to 7.4 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 19.2 0.0 to 147.0 0.13 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.2 33.3 to 3.1 0.53 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.28 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 93.0 30.0 to 128.0 0.64 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.7 2.6 to -2.7 0.18 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 140.6 -28.0 to 171.0 0.85 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 174.4 814.0 to -65.0 0.73 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 66.2 95.0 to 0.0 0.30 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL182017 PHILIPPE 10/29/17 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL182017 PHILIPPE 10/29/2017 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 32 38 39 40 36 27 29 29 30 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 35 34 40 41 42 38 29 31 31 32 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 35 32 31 32 33 29 20 22 22 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 26 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT