* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OPHELIA AL172017 10/11/17 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 59 62 65 69 71 73 71 72 74 78 78 89 77 69 64 59 V (KT) LAND 55 59 62 65 69 71 73 71 72 74 78 78 89 77 69 64 59 V (KT) LGEM 55 59 63 67 69 72 71 69 68 69 71 71 65 55 48 47 47 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 12 7 11 13 13 12 18 11 15 11 24 36 45 16 13 12 1 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -4 -6 -7 -6 -4 -2 0 -5 -3 6 23 4 2 -2 0 -2 SHEAR DIR 327 322 304 330 5 332 350 340 327 262 222 214 214 174 193 179 286 SST (C) 26.2 26.3 26.4 26.4 26.4 26.2 25.9 25.8 25.3 24.7 22.4 21.1 19.7 13.4 11.6 11.1 11.3 POT. INT. (KT) 113 114 114 114 114 114 112 113 110 106 92 87 86 75 67 63 62 ADJ. POT. INT. 95 95 95 94 96 97 97 98 97 95 84 80 81 73 65 61 60 200 MB T (C) -57.2 -57.3 -57.2 -57.2 -57.2 -56.3 -56.8 -56.4 -56.7 -55.9 -55.8 -54.7 -55.2 -50.1 -49.5 -49.8 -49.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.2 0.1 -0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.6 0.4 1.5 0.5 0.0 3.4 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 4 3 2 2 1 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 53 53 53 51 52 51 53 54 55 46 41 48 48 63 79 83 72 MODEL VTX (KT) 20 21 22 22 24 24 24 22 23 25 30 34 46 41 36 34 31 850 MB ENV VOR -2 2 -3 -8 -11 -16 -18 0 47 109 105 107 8 289 284 321 257 200 MB DIV -14 1 11 -13 -22 -16 -37 -27 42 41 46 18 25 93 57 5 2 700-850 TADV 0 -1 1 0 0 4 1 11 0 -19 -64 -28 -35 83 42 32 18 LAND (KM) 2229 2189 2150 2127 2105 2045 1926 1775 1579 1351 1024 598 214 241 589 818 797 LAT (DEG N) 30.4 30.2 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.3 31.0 31.9 33.1 34.7 36.9 39.5 42.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 37.2 36.9 36.5 36.3 36.0 35.2 33.7 31.5 28.6 24.8 20.6 16.1 11.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 4 3 2 3 6 9 12 16 19 21 22 35 40 15 6 4 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):135/ 6 CX,CY: 4/ -3 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 623 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 12.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -8. -10. -13. -17. -20. -23. -26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 2. -1. -7. -10. -10. -10. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 4. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 8. 9. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 11. 9. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. -0. 0. 2. 7. 13. 28. 19. 12. 8. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 10. 14. 16. 18. 16. 17. 19. 23. 23. 34. 22. 14. 9. 4. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 30.4 37.2 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL172017 OPHELIA 10/11/17 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.73 4.2 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 13.3 41.0 to 7.4 0.82 2.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.6 0.0 to 147.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.4 33.3 to 3.1 0.53 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.84 1.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 40.1 30.0 to 128.0 0.10 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.6 to -2.7 0.61 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : -7.4 -28.0 to 171.0 0.10 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 317.0 814.0 to -65.0 0.57 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 70.8 95.0 to 0.0 0.25 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.7% 17.4% 11.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 4.3% 17.2% 9.8% 1.6% 0.6% 4.2% 2.7% 1.0% Bayesian: 3.5% 1.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 5.2% 11.9% 7.3% 0.6% 0.2% 1.4% 0.9% 0.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL172017 OPHELIA 10/11/17 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL172017 OPHELIA 10/11/2017 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 3( 3) 4( 7) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 59 62 65 69 71 73 71 72 74 78 78 89 77 69 64 59 18HR AGO 55 54 57 60 64 66 68 66 67 69 73 73 84 72 64 59 54 12HR AGO 55 52 51 54 58 60 62 60 61 63 67 67 78 66 58 53 48 6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 49 51 53 51 52 54 58 58 69 57 49 44 39 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT