* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MARIA AL152017 09/27/17 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 57 55 52 49 44 41 42 39 38 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 60 57 55 52 49 44 41 42 39 38 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 60 58 56 55 53 49 46 48 50 46 37 28 24 22 N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 17 17 20 16 17 8 6 11 22 21 44 76 70 1 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 2 -2 1 3 5 4 1 6 11 17 21 12 5 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 296 314 306 302 313 336 258 195 201 215 218 237 250 221 N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.5 25.5 25.6 25.4 25.3 25.5 26.1 27.0 24.8 15.7 18.0 14.7 13.9 13.2 N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 107 106 107 105 105 109 117 129 110 77 82 76 76 75 N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 89 88 88 87 87 93 102 115 101 74 78 73 74 73 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.0 -50.3 -50.5 -49.8 -50.0 -50.6 -50.6 -50.2 -50.2 -50.6 -50.3 -49.2 -47.0 -44.8 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.8 2.1 1.7 1.3 1.4 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 5 7 6 3 2 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 61 61 61 59 58 57 48 39 37 36 26 17 31 50 N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 38 38 38 37 36 34 33 31 30 30 24 12 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 41 21 13 3 -3 22 75 142 86 78 20 38 7 310 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 7 11 11 3 -31 25 24 30 42 56 -6 -35 -49 17 N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 8 5 5 5 4 2 -5 -11 -27 -5 -59 -159 -191 84 N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 283 275 276 301 328 454 558 637 694 567 1030 1378 664 -50 N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 34.6 35.0 35.4 35.7 36.0 36.4 37.1 38.2 40.1 42.9 46.2 49.9 53.6 xx.x N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 72.9 72.8 72.7 72.4 72.1 70.6 67.3 62.6 56.3 48.3 39.4 29.7 20.1 xxx.x N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 4 4 4 5 10 17 23 30 35 37 36 40 46 N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 13 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 5/ 6 CX,CY: 1/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 696 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 49.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -12. -14. -18. -21. -25. -27. -28. -29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. -2. -12. -23. -26. -28. -30. -31. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -9. -11. -11. -12. -13. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -2. -5. -8. -11. -15. -16. -25. -43. -43. -42. -40. -39. -38. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 3. 3. 3. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -0. -1. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -3. -5. -8. -11. -16. -19. -18. -21. -22. -36. -64. -78. -81. -82. -82. -81. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 34.6 72.9 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL152017 MARIA 09/27/17 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.53 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 26.5 41.0 to 7.4 0.43 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 147.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.6 33.3 to 3.1 0.32 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.98 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 27.8 30.0 to 128.0 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.9 2.6 to -2.7 0.13 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 0.2 -28.0 to 171.0 0.14 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 281.0 814.0 to -65.0 0.61 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 95.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 0.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.3% 8.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.3% 2.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL152017 MARIA 09/27/17 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL152017 MARIA 09/27/2017 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 60 57 55 52 49 44 41 42 39 38 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 60 59 57 54 51 46 43 44 41 40 26 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 60 57 56 53 50 45 42 43 40 39 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 60 54 51 50 47 42 39 40 37 36 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT