* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MARIA AL152017 09/24/17 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 90 89 88 89 90 87 81 76 71 63 56 50 47 43 31 22 N/A V (KT) LAND 90 89 88 89 90 87 81 76 71 63 56 50 47 43 31 22 N/A V (KT) LGEM 90 87 85 85 86 84 78 72 69 64 59 55 52 52 46 39 33 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 9 7 11 7 8 15 9 13 10 16 9 13 20 30 56 35 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -3 2 3 4 -1 -3 0 2 6 9 7 8 13 17 27 SHEAR DIR 197 242 314 327 316 311 326 296 294 333 313 304 237 217 217 228 191 SST (C) 28.0 27.5 27.8 28.4 28.5 27.8 27.4 27.0 26.3 25.6 25.5 25.7 26.0 23.8 13.3 17.5 16.8 POT. INT. (KT) 135 128 132 140 142 132 126 121 114 108 108 110 120 105 74 81 80 ADJ. POT. INT. 116 109 111 117 117 109 103 98 93 90 90 92 111 101 72 78 76 200 MB T (C) -50.3 -50.4 -50.5 -50.1 -49.7 -49.8 -49.5 -49.4 -49.5 -50.1 -50.4 -50.8 -50.4 -49.6 -48.7 -49.7 -50.4 200 MB VXT (C) 1.3 1.6 1.8 1.6 1.4 1.9 1.3 1.9 1.9 1.5 0.6 0.9 0.5 0.9 0.8 0.0 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 8 8 8 7 7 6 7 6 5 1 2 1 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 61 56 55 54 58 62 64 62 60 55 50 44 38 41 45 39 24 MODEL VTX (KT) 41 43 41 43 44 43 42 41 41 39 37 35 34 33 31 26 16 850 MB ENV VOR 68 74 81 87 81 67 65 56 53 29 51 80 72 87 170 141 92 200 MB DIV 83 69 26 26 50 34 33 -10 14 2 8 8 49 56 63 29 14 700-850 TADV 7 6 12 13 17 26 15 4 4 8 21 22 -9 -20 -64 -14 -44 LAND (KM) 711 648 585 531 478 388 318 265 261 322 436 583 593 638 348 1089 1259 LAT (DEG N) 29.1 29.7 30.3 30.9 31.4 32.4 33.3 34.1 34.7 35.3 35.8 36.3 36.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 73.0 73.1 73.2 73.2 73.3 73.4 73.5 73.5 73.1 72.2 70.9 69.0 67.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 6 6 5 5 4 4 4 5 7 8 28 40 35 39 39 HEAT CONTENT 19 14 19 26 26 16 15 9 2 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):345/ 8 CX,CY: -1/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 100 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 590 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -2. -3. -6. -12. -19. -26. -33. -38. -42. -45. -48. -52. -55. -56. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. 0. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 7. 3. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -9. -11. -12. -14. -14. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. 1. 1. 1. -1. -4. -5. -8. -12. -15. -17. -18. -21. -26. -36. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 5. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -1. -0. -3. -9. -14. -19. -27. -34. -40. -43. -47. -59. -68. -81. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 90. LAT, LON: 29.1 73.0 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL152017 MARIA 09/24/17 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.47 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 17.4 41.0 to 7.4 0.70 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 20.8 0.0 to 147.0 0.14 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.9 33.3 to 3.1 0.74 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 90.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.54 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 23.8 30.0 to 128.0 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.6 to -2.7 0.47 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 50.8 -28.0 to 171.0 0.40 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 519.0 814.0 to -65.0 0.34 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 6.1 95.0 to 0.0 0.94 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 4.1% 5.4% 4.1% 2.7% 0.9% 1.0% 0.6% 0.1% Bayesian: 2.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.9% 1.8% 1.4% 0.9% 0.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL152017 MARIA 09/24/17 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL152017 MARIA 09/24/2017 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 12 11( 22) 12( 31) 10( 38) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 2 0( 2) 0( 2) 0( 2) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 90 89 88 89 90 87 81 76 71 63 56 50 47 43 31 22 DIS 18HR AGO 90 89 88 89 90 87 81 76 71 63 56 50 47 43 31 22 DIS 12HR AGO 90 87 86 87 88 85 79 74 69 61 54 48 45 41 29 20 DIS 6HR AGO 90 84 81 80 81 78 72 67 62 54 47 41 38 34 22 DIS DIS NOW 90 81 75 72 71 68 62 57 52 44 37 31 28 24 DIS DIS DIS IN 6HR 90 89 80 74 71 69 63 58 53 45 38 32 29 25 DIS DIS DIS IN 12HR 90 89 88 79 73 69 63 58 53 45 38 32 29 25 DIS DIS DIS