* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LEE AL142017 09/23/17 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 42 44 47 50 56 62 65 67 65 64 61 60 59 57 49 43 V (KT) LAND 40 42 44 47 50 56 62 65 67 65 64 61 60 59 57 49 43 V (KT) LGEM 40 42 44 47 50 56 64 69 71 71 69 67 66 64 61 57 51 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 2 2 6 7 1 9 7 15 10 20 19 24 14 14 26 40 52 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 -1 -2 -2 -4 -6 -5 -4 -5 -5 -3 0 2 -3 1 -2 SHEAR DIR 355 213 234 263 289 237 270 239 227 232 234 232 242 282 15 29 52 SST (C) 27.6 27.5 27.5 27.4 27.4 27.3 27.5 27.2 27.1 27.2 27.3 27.5 27.6 27.2 27.3 26.7 25.5 POT. INT. (KT) 127 127 127 126 126 125 128 123 121 122 124 127 129 126 128 120 108 ADJ. POT. INT. 103 103 103 103 104 104 106 102 100 100 103 106 107 107 109 100 91 200 MB T (C) -55.3 -55.5 -55.7 -56.2 -56.5 -56.7 -57.3 -57.2 -57.1 -57.0 -57.1 -57.0 -56.8 -55.9 -54.4 -53.2 -52.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 0.2 0.3 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 8 8 8 9 8 8 8 8 8 9 9 8 7 9 8 700-500 MB RH 57 55 53 54 56 59 55 47 44 40 41 42 44 44 44 39 40 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 7 8 8 9 9 8 8 6 5 4 4 3 3 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -52 -62 -62 -73 -76 -67 -67 -82 -82 -93 -85 -85 -90 -92 -150 -195 -160 200 MB DIV -1 7 -6 1 -8 2 -25 -36 -15 1 1 3 -6 -33 -62 -62 -14 700-850 TADV 0 1 2 -1 -3 0 1 0 0 0 0 2 -1 0 -1 1 -12 LAND (KM) 1686 1667 1649 1662 1676 1734 1826 1913 1964 2001 1986 1935 1874 1748 1477 1292 1117 LAT (DEG N) 31.8 32.0 32.2 32.2 32.1 31.8 31.2 30.6 30.2 29.8 29.8 30.1 30.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 49.4 49.2 49.0 48.6 48.2 47.1 46.1 45.3 45.0 45.2 45.7 46.4 47.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 2 3 3 3 4 5 5 4 2 2 3 4 5 9 11 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 12 11 10 8 7 6 7 6 6 6 6 7 8 5 6 6 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):340/ 2 CX,CY: 0/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 648 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 14.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 10.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 7. 9. 10. 9. 9. 8. 8. 7. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 10. 10. 9. 7. 4. 3. 1. -1. -4. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 6. 5. 4. 3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 12. 13. 13. 13. 13. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -6. -8. -10. -11. -13. -13. -15. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -11. -12. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 10. 16. 22. 25. 27. 25. 24. 21. 20. 19. 17. 9. 3. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 31.8 49.4 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142017 LEE 09/23/17 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.67 3.6 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 11.9 41.0 to 7.4 0.87 2.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 9.6 0.0 to 147.0 0.07 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.8 33.3 to 3.1 0.58 1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.42 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 63.2 30.0 to 128.0 0.34 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.6 to -2.7 0.37 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : -1.4 -28.0 to 171.0 0.13 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 239.0 814.0 to -65.0 0.65 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 67.1 95.0 to 0.0 0.29 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.3% 15.6% 10.6% 0.0% 0.0% 11.2% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.8% 21.6% 16.8% 7.4% 2.0% 8.4% 3.9% 5.7% Bayesian: 0.5% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.5% 12.5% 9.2% 2.5% 0.7% 6.6% 1.3% 1.9% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL142017 LEE 09/23/17 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142017 LEE 09/23/2017 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 42 44 47 50 56 62 65 67 65 64 61 60 59 57 49 43 18HR AGO 40 39 41 44 47 53 59 62 64 62 61 58 57 56 54 46 40 12HR AGO 40 37 36 39 42 48 54 57 59 57 56 53 52 51 49 41 35 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 33 39 45 48 50 48 47 44 43 42 40 32 26 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT