* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JOSE AL122017 09/19/17 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 65 65 65 63 62 57 53 49 46 42 38 32 24 19 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 65 65 65 63 62 57 53 49 46 42 38 32 24 19 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 65 65 65 63 60 54 50 50 51 52 53 51 46 42 38 36 34 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 20 15 25 20 16 20 14 12 11 12 15 21 20 27 25 32 36 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -2 -7 -6 0 -2 -2 -1 -3 -4 -3 -3 -3 -5 0 0 -2 SHEAR DIR 233 204 204 214 216 211 222 244 249 264 292 274 287 265 259 274 272 SST (C) 27.5 26.7 25.4 24.1 22.7 21.6 23.8 25.4 26.1 26.5 26.0 25.4 25.0 23.4 21.2 22.2 20.0 POT. INT. (KT) 129 120 107 98 89 83 93 104 110 114 109 103 102 91 82 87 78 ADJ. POT. INT. 105 98 90 82 76 71 77 83 87 90 86 83 83 77 72 76 70 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.4 -51.2 -51.0 -51.4 -51.0 -51.4 -52.0 -52.7 -52.9 -53.3 -52.8 -53.3 -52.6 -52.7 -52.5 -53.4 200 MB VXT (C) 1.7 1.7 1.9 2.0 1.6 2.5 1.7 1.7 0.9 1.6 0.8 0.7 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.5 1.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 5 5 3 3 4 2 1 0 1 1 3 1 2 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 55 53 52 52 51 46 40 36 40 41 41 40 47 45 46 47 50 MODEL VTX (KT) 37 38 39 38 38 36 34 32 30 29 27 25 22 20 16 14 16 850 MB ENV VOR 63 66 69 56 68 48 29 37 40 21 1 -45 -43 -75 -117 -104 -60 200 MB DIV 28 45 47 40 51 24 5 9 -10 -10 -40 -27 -49 -7 -14 9 10 700-850 TADV 7 -1 2 1 3 -4 -1 -2 3 0 1 1 0 -1 -4 2 7 LAND (KM) 377 366 354 316 280 247 300 348 378 404 411 411 411 331 229 293 199 LAT (DEG N) 36.4 37.1 37.8 38.5 39.1 39.8 39.8 39.5 39.2 38.9 38.7 38.6 38.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 71.6 71.3 70.9 70.3 69.8 68.4 67.4 67.0 66.9 66.9 67.1 67.3 67.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 8 8 7 5 3 2 2 2 1 1 4 4 7 9 8 HEAT CONTENT 42 8 1 0 0 0 0 0 3 7 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):350/ 7 CX,CY: 0/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 743 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 56.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -5. -9. -13. -17. -20. -23. -25. -28. -31. -35. -37. -39. -40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. 10. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. 0. -2. -5. -9. -13. -16. -19. -23. -28. -30. -33. -34. -31. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. -0. -2. -3. -8. -12. -16. -19. -23. -27. -33. -41. -46. -54. -59. -61. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 36.4 71.6 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122017 JOSE 09/19/17 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.60 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 22.9 41.0 to 7.4 0.54 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 10.2 0.0 to 147.0 0.07 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.9 33.3 to 3.1 0.48 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.93 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 25.4 30.0 to 128.0 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.0 2.6 to -2.7 0.68 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 42.2 -28.0 to 171.0 0.35 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 355.2 814.0 to -65.0 0.52 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 33.7 95.0 to 0.0 0.65 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.6% 13.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.1% 1.6% 0.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.7% 5.2% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122017 JOSE 09/19/17 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122017 JOSE 09/19/2017 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 2 2( 4) 0( 4) 0( 4) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 65 65 65 63 62 57 53 49 46 42 38 32 24 19 DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 65 64 64 62 61 56 52 48 45 41 37 31 23 18 DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 65 62 61 59 58 53 49 45 42 38 34 28 20 15 DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 65 59 56 55 54 49 45 41 38 34 30 24 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT