* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FIFTEEN EP152017 09/15/17 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 31 32 33 36 40 45 48 49 49 46 45 43 41 40 40 V (KT) LAND 30 30 31 32 33 36 40 45 48 49 49 46 45 43 41 40 40 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 30 30 31 32 33 33 33 32 31 29 27 24 22 20 19 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 8 8 5 4 4 4 5 5 5 10 14 11 14 13 6 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -5 -6 -5 -5 -5 0 3 3 2 2 2 5 4 1 4 4 SHEAR DIR 50 49 48 42 26 6 113 141 153 54 81 88 102 97 124 121 123 SST (C) 27.9 27.9 28.1 28.1 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.0 27.6 27.3 27.2 27.2 26.8 26.5 25.9 26.2 POT. INT. (KT) 141 140 142 142 142 142 142 142 140 136 132 132 134 131 127 121 123 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -52.3 -52.4 -52.1 -52.1 -52.1 -51.9 -52.1 -52.0 -52.2 -52.1 -52.4 -52.2 -52.5 -52.6 -52.9 -53.1 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 4 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 2 3 3 3 700-500 MB RH 59 59 57 58 57 54 54 52 48 46 47 44 45 42 46 40 41 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 13 13 14 15 14 16 15 15 15 13 12 10 9 7 6 850 MB ENV VOR -3 -11 -16 -15 -4 -6 11 3 6 20 30 30 30 40 37 30 21 200 MB DIV 0 -9 -20 -31 -29 -10 21 28 61 33 21 34 39 21 -14 -3 -5 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 -1 -2 -1 0 0 1 3 3 2 3 LAND (KM) 1594 1623 1652 1673 1694 1711 1699 1684 1650 1616 1599 1612 1627 1767 1895 1962 2032 LAT (DEG N) 15.9 15.9 15.9 15.9 15.9 15.9 16.2 16.5 16.9 17.3 17.6 17.8 17.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 124.3 124.7 125.0 125.3 125.5 125.7 125.8 125.9 125.9 125.9 126.0 126.4 126.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 3 3 2 1 1 2 1 2 2 1 2 5 8 7 6 5 HEAT CONTENT 10 11 12 13 13 13 14 13 12 8 6 5 5 4 3 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 524 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 26.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 16. 20. 23. 25. 27. 27. 27. 27. 27. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 9. 8. 8. 7. 6. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. -8. -10. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 3. 2. -0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. -9. -8. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 15. 18. 19. 19. 16. 15. 13. 11. 10. 10. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 15.9 124.3 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP152017 FIFTEEN 09/15/17 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 111.3 30.0 to 135.0 0.77 7.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.33 3.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -17.8 -30.0 to 145.0 0.07 0.5 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 11.2 28.1 to 8.6 0.87 5.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 148.2 742.0 to -74.0 0.73 -5.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.15 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.6 34.4 to 2.3 0.55 2.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 11.8 3.0 to 94.0 0.10 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 3.3 56.6 to 0.0 0.94 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.3 2.0 to -2.0 0.82 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 1.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 10.6% 20.8% 16.2% 12.5% 0.0% 18.1% 16.0% 14.8% Logistic: 0.9% 8.2% 2.4% 1.3% 0.8% 1.4% 0.3% 0.3% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.8% 9.7% 6.2% 4.6% 0.3% 6.5% 5.4% 5.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152017 FIFTEEN 09/15/17 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##