* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FIFTEEN EP152017 09/14/17 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 30 31 31 34 39 45 51 54 57 55 57 58 60 60 59 V (KT) LAND 30 30 30 31 31 34 39 45 51 54 57 55 57 58 60 60 59 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 30 30 29 30 31 32 34 36 37 36 36 37 36 36 35 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 13 13 11 8 7 7 3 3 6 8 7 7 6 1 5 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -5 -4 -3 -1 -5 -4 -5 -1 2 2 3 1 1 3 1 0 SHEAR DIR 91 98 91 89 96 98 101 110 62 68 71 57 26 18 144 256 255 SST (C) 28.7 28.6 28.6 28.5 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.3 28.3 28.4 28.4 28.3 28.0 27.6 27.7 26.9 26.2 POT. INT. (KT) 150 148 148 147 146 145 145 143 143 144 144 143 141 137 138 131 123 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.5 -52.4 -52.0 -51.9 -52.3 -52.0 -52.1 -51.7 -51.8 -51.5 -51.8 -52.0 -51.9 -52.1 -52.0 -51.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.5 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 3 4 3 4 3 3 700-500 MB RH 65 62 60 59 59 55 58 55 54 49 46 44 45 40 45 42 43 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 14 15 15 16 14 15 16 15 14 12 850 MB ENV VOR 31 6 -5 -11 -15 -18 -21 -12 -2 3 17 19 9 4 -3 -3 -1 200 MB DIV 38 22 2 -5 -12 -3 -5 -2 33 37 44 1 6 0 -1 0 2 700-850 TADV 0 -1 -2 0 0 0 0 0 0 -2 -1 -1 3 3 6 8 6 LAND (KM) 1471 1500 1529 1560 1591 1663 1712 1738 1733 1719 1691 1660 1615 1615 1682 1619 1662 LAT (DEG N) 15.2 15.3 15.3 15.4 15.5 15.4 15.4 15.5 15.7 15.9 16.2 16.4 16.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 122.0 122.5 122.9 123.4 123.9 124.7 125.3 125.7 125.8 125.8 125.7 125.5 125.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 4 4 5 4 3 2 2 1 1 1 2 3 4 3 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 16 16 16 15 14 14 13 12 12 13 13 12 10 8 8 3 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 521 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 32.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 21. 25. 27. 29. 30. 31. 32. 32. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 1. 2. 3. 2. 1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -8. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 4. 9. 16. 21. 24. 27. 25. 27. 28. 30. 30. 29. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 15.2 122.0 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP152017 FIFTEEN 09/14/17 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.7 30.0 to 135.0 0.84 7.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.33 2.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 9.0 -30.0 to 145.0 0.22 1.4 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 17.9 28.1 to 8.6 0.53 3.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 140.2 742.0 to -74.0 0.74 -5.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.15 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.9 34.4 to 2.3 0.36 1.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 15.4 3.0 to 94.0 0.14 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.4 2.0 to -2.0 0.83 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 17% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.6% 17.0% 14.0% 10.9% 0.0% 16.3% 14.6% 16.7% Logistic: 0.3% 3.3% 0.8% 0.4% 0.2% 0.4% 0.2% 0.9% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.0% 6.8% 4.9% 3.8% 0.1% 5.5% 5.0% 5.9% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152017 FIFTEEN 09/14/17 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##