* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FIFTEEN EP152017 09/13/17 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 30 31 33 36 41 46 50 52 55 57 58 59 59 60 59 V (KT) LAND 30 30 30 31 33 36 41 46 50 52 55 57 58 59 59 60 59 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 30 30 30 31 32 35 38 40 42 45 46 47 46 44 41 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 16 16 12 12 10 10 10 9 11 7 10 13 13 19 14 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 -2 -4 -2 -4 -7 -2 -4 0 -4 -1 0 2 9 2 0 1 SHEAR DIR 88 80 92 98 97 84 76 55 41 18 55 54 65 37 68 67 104 SST (C) 28.8 28.7 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.5 28.5 28.4 28.3 28.1 28.0 27.9 27.8 28.4 28.6 27.6 27.3 POT. INT. (KT) 152 150 151 151 151 148 146 145 144 141 140 139 141 149 150 142 135 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.5 -52.6 -52.2 -52.4 -52.5 -52.0 -52.3 -51.9 -51.9 -51.7 -52.0 -51.6 -51.4 -51.3 -51.8 -51.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 3 4 3 4 700-500 MB RH 68 68 66 68 67 59 61 55 56 54 54 51 52 43 47 40 42 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 11 10 11 12 10 11 11 12 13 13 14 14 14 14 15 13 850 MB ENV VOR 75 60 47 36 27 -3 -2 -12 -10 -24 -12 -27 -4 -10 -7 2 -2 200 MB DIV 54 51 45 35 33 -12 19 10 13 -1 29 22 31 7 -32 -7 -2 700-850 TADV 0 -2 -2 -2 -2 -1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -1 0 0 3 LAND (KM) 1298 1352 1404 1448 1496 1583 1653 1701 1749 1790 1808 1842 1861 1491 1444 1712 1772 LAT (DEG N) 14.9 14.9 14.8 14.9 14.9 15.1 15.1 15.1 15.0 15.0 15.1 15.1 15.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 119.0 119.8 120.5 121.3 122.0 123.4 124.3 124.9 125.4 125.9 126.2 126.6 126.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 7 7 7 7 6 3 3 2 2 1 2 8 11 9 14 5 HEAT CONTENT 18 16 17 17 17 18 17 15 13 11 11 10 11 12 14 8 7 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):255/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 520 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 26.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 22. 25. 27. 29. 30. 32. 33. 35. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 7. 8. 8. 7. 7. 6. 5. 4. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. 0. -1. -0. -1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 3. 3. 2. 3. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. -9. -7. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. 0. 1. 3. 6. 11. 16. 20. 22. 25. 27. 28. 29. 29. 30. 29. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 14.9 119.0 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP152017 FIFTEEN 09/13/17 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 121.4 30.0 to 135.0 0.87 7.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.33 2.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 43.6 -30.0 to 145.0 0.42 2.8 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 20.4 28.1 to 8.6 0.40 2.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 120.6 742.0 to -74.0 0.76 -5.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.15 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.1 34.4 to 2.3 0.45 2.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 17.0 3.0 to 94.0 0.15 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.8 2.0 to -2.0 0.70 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 17% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.8% 19.2% 15.6% 12.2% 0.0% 18.2% 15.6% 17.4% Logistic: 0.1% 0.8% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 1.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.0% 6.7% 5.3% 4.1% 0.0% 6.1% 5.2% 6.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152017 FIFTEEN 09/13/17 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##