* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JOSE AL122017 09/09/17 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 130 125 120 116 114 110 98 90 88 84 88 88 90 91 93 93 92 V (KT) LAND 130 125 120 116 114 110 98 90 88 84 88 88 90 91 93 93 92 V (KT) LGEM 130 124 116 110 106 103 101 99 96 90 86 83 80 81 84 89 92 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 16 15 10 7 12 25 21 19 19 19 17 17 14 10 9 5 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 4 4 7 3 7 -2 8 3 7 7 6 4 5 4 4 4 SHEAR DIR 260 247 242 241 259 359 11 35 16 6 11 1 349 20 20 347 296 SST (C) 29.1 28.6 28.3 28.6 29.1 29.2 29.5 29.7 29.8 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.8 29.8 29.8 POT. INT. (KT) 154 146 142 146 154 156 161 163 164 162 162 162 162 164 163 165 164 ADJ. POT. INT. 149 140 136 139 147 148 148 147 143 138 137 136 137 146 141 145 141 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.4 -53.3 -52.7 -52.7 -52.6 -51.2 -51.4 -50.5 -50.5 -50.1 -50.2 -50.0 -50.1 -50.0 -49.7 -49.3 200 MB VXT (C) -0.5 -0.2 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 12 12 12 12 13 13 13 12 12 10 10 9 10 11 12 11 11 700-500 MB RH 56 57 56 58 56 54 55 58 61 63 66 65 60 60 57 59 61 MODEL VTX (KT) 21 21 21 22 22 23 20 21 24 24 27 28 30 31 33 34 34 850 MB ENV VOR -12 -13 -4 0 1 -36 -49 -56 -49 -42 -41 -28 -28 -25 -3 -8 23 200 MB DIV 61 49 45 20 -5 -17 -18 -35 -36 -27 -2 3 9 13 3 21 26 700-850 TADV 2 4 6 4 1 11 10 6 11 14 14 12 9 1 -1 3 6 LAND (KM) 697 631 512 401 305 260 422 510 626 749 847 929 1014 711 576 726 816 LAT (DEG N) 16.7 17.2 17.7 18.4 19.0 20.6 22.3 23.9 25.2 26.3 27.1 27.6 28.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 58.8 59.8 60.9 61.9 62.9 64.9 66.6 67.9 68.6 68.4 67.9 66.9 66.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 12 11 12 12 11 9 6 5 5 5 5 10 4 8 6 HEAT CONTENT 65 52 45 51 61 49 61 58 52 46 36 32 34 46 59 48 46 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 130 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 640 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 83.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. -3. -7. -16. -26. -35. -43. -49. -53. -56. -59. -61. -62. -62. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -4. -8. -10. -11. -11. -12. -11. -8. -4. 1. 4. 7. 12. 15. 15. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -3. -4. -1. -2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 6. 6. 5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -5. -10. -14. -16. -20. -32. -40. -42. -46. -42. -42. -40. -39. -37. -37. -38. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 130. LAT, LON: 16.7 58.8 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122017 JOSE 09/09/17 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.60 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 26.5 41.0 to 7.4 0.43 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 54.8 0.0 to 147.0 0.37 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.7 33.3 to 3.1 0.68 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 130.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.00 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 12.2 30.0 to 128.0 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.7 2.6 to -2.7 0.18 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 34.0 -28.0 to 171.0 0.31 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 799.0 814.0 to -65.0 0.02 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 4.4 95.0 to 0.0 0.95 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.7% 0.7% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.3% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.6% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.4% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122017 JOSE 09/09/17 00 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 1 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122017 JOSE 09/09/2017 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 43 33( 62) 30( 73) 29( 81) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 77 73( 94) 71( 98) 34( 99) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 130 125 120 116 114 110 98 90 88 84 88 88 90 91 93 93 92 18HR AGO 130 129 124 120 118 114 102 94 92 88 92 92 94 95 97 97 96 12HR AGO 130 127 126 122 120 116 104 96 94 90 94 94 96 97 99 99 98 6HR AGO 130 124 121 120 118 114 102 94 92 88 92 92 94 95 97 97 96 NOW 130 121 115 112 111 107 95 87 85 81 85 85 87 88 90 90 89 IN 6HR 130 125 116 110 107 103 91 83 81 77 81 81 83 84 86 86 85 IN 12HR 130 125 120 111 105 101 89 81 79 75 79 79 81 82 84 84 83