* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KATIA AL132017 09/06/17 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 46 51 55 61 68 75 76 70 60 56 53 53 54 55 57 57 V (KT) LAND 40 46 51 55 61 68 75 76 53 35 29 28 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 40 44 48 52 55 63 71 77 55 36 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 15 11 14 13 8 8 5 5 8 13 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -1 -1 -2 -3 -1 -3 -3 1 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 266 237 214 231 232 176 95 76 42 90 80 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.6 29.3 28.5 28.3 28.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 162 162 162 162 161 162 158 154 142 139 140 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 141 141 141 141 140 141 139 137 127 125 128 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.3 -53.1 -53.4 -53.5 -52.7 -52.9 -51.9 -51.8 -51.2 -51.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.2 -0.3 -0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 9 7 5 10 6 11 7 11 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 77 76 73 72 74 72 73 71 74 72 72 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 9 10 9 9 11 12 15 13 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 3 3 -2 0 10 -1 -7 -11 13 26 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 46 60 63 54 34 49 42 57 73 52 42 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 1 1 2 3 6 3 7 0 9 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 116 134 155 169 174 158 110 43 -58 -182 -225 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 21.8 21.7 21.5 21.4 21.2 20.9 20.7 20.3 19.8 19.2 18.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 96.1 95.9 95.7 95.5 95.4 95.4 95.8 96.3 97.1 98.1 99.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 4 5 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 48 50 51 52 48 45 39 28 16 10 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):125/ 3 CX,CY: 2/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 554 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 39.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 12. 16. 19. 21. 23. 25. 27. 27. 27. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. 8. 8. 8. 8. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -9. -10. -11. -10. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 4. 2. -5. -14. -15. -16. -16. -16. -16. -16. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 8. 12. 11. 8. 4. 1. -2. -5. -6. -8. -8. -9. -8. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 6. 11. 15. 21. 28. 35. 36. 30. 20. 16. 13. 13. 14. 15. 17. 18. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 21.8 96.1 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132017 KATIA 09/06/17 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.73 11.2 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 18.2 41.0 to 7.4 0.68 6.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 49.8 0.0 to 147.0 0.34 2.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.6 33.3 to 3.1 0.88 5.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.42 2.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 100.9 30.0 to 128.0 0.72 2.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.9 2.6 to -2.7 0.67 2.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 51.4 -28.0 to 171.0 0.40 1.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 65.6 814.0 to -65.0 0.85 2.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 95.0 to 0.0 1.00 1.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 22% is 4.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 51% is 4.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 38% is 5.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 6.1 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 7.3 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 32% is 7.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 33% is 7.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 44% is 8.3 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 21.6% 50.6% 37.5% 23.9% 17.5% 32.1% 32.7% 43.9% Logistic: 43.0% 78.3% 70.3% 53.5% 31.9% 56.6% 65.1% 71.5% Bayesian: 14.0% 23.3% 12.5% 12.7% 6.4% 5.2% 1.0% 52.1% Consensus: 26.2% 50.8% 40.1% 30.0% 18.6% 31.3% 32.9% 55.8% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132017 KATIA 09/06/17 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132017 KATIA 09/06/2017 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 3( 3) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 2( 2) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 46 51 55 61 68 75 76 53 35 29 28 27 27 27 27 27 18HR AGO 40 39 44 48 54 61 68 69 46 28 22 21 20 20 20 20 20 12HR AGO 40 37 36 40 46 53 60 61 38 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 36 43 50 51 28 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT