* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IRMA AL112017 09/04/17 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 115 118 120 120 119 117 116 118 116 117 119 123 124 127 129 126 123 V (KT) LAND 115 118 120 120 119 117 116 118 116 117 119 123 88 101 103 92 89 V (KT) LGEM 115 120 124 126 126 125 124 123 120 118 120 119 89 106 107 97 91 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 9 9 12 10 9 7 7 13 13 8 11 9 15 13 18 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 1 4 5 4 2 5 3 3 1 1 1 4 5 1 7 1 SHEAR DIR 46 28 356 346 349 294 320 279 313 289 284 266 298 259 234 220 204 SST (C) 28.9 29.2 29.3 29.4 29.5 29.3 29.5 29.5 29.4 29.5 29.7 29.9 30.7 29.9 30.0 29.3 29.0 POT. INT. (KT) 150 155 157 159 161 158 162 162 160 161 164 168 171 167 169 158 152 ADJ. POT. INT. 145 151 153 155 158 155 159 156 153 153 154 156 169 148 152 142 134 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.2 -52.3 -52.1 -51.5 -52.0 -50.8 -50.8 -50.2 -50.4 -50.0 -50.2 -49.8 -49.8 -49.0 -48.8 -48.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.4 0.7 0.9 0.9 1.2 1.0 1.1 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.0 1.0 1.2 1.6 1.9 2.1 TH_E DEV (C) 12 12 11 11 11 11 12 12 13 13 14 13 13 11 9 5 3 700-500 MB RH 53 51 55 56 58 59 59 57 60 61 64 65 68 72 70 66 65 MODEL VTX (KT) 29 30 31 32 32 32 34 36 36 38 41 44 44 48 52 53 55 850 MB ENV VOR 82 80 77 73 70 65 68 62 62 60 81 95 116 138 167 145 175 200 MB DIV 26 -2 -27 9 36 17 85 20 24 40 47 47 43 75 77 94 162 700-850 TADV -5 -2 -4 -5 -3 -3 8 10 2 8 6 8 16 26 27 46 41 LAND (KM) 1008 918 836 781 746 479 182 111 69 122 91 36 -11 131 64 17 89 LAT (DEG N) 16.7 16.7 16.7 16.9 17.1 17.8 18.6 19.5 20.2 20.9 21.4 21.8 22.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 53.9 55.0 56.2 57.4 58.6 61.2 64.0 66.8 69.5 72.1 74.6 76.9 79.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 12 12 12 13 14 13 13 12 11 10 8 7 9 13 12 HEAT CONTENT 44 45 51 55 62 58 77 65 68 56 71 50 71 63 55 36 31 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 100 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 529 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 2. 3. 3. 0. -5. -13. -18. -22. -26. -27. -28. -30. -33. -35. -36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -5. -5. -5. -2. 2. 4. 7. 10. 11. 13. 16. 17. 17. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -10. -11. -13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 3. 5. 6. 7. 11. 14. 13. 16. 20. 20. 20. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 5. 4. 2. 1. 3. 1. 2. 4. 8. 9. 12. 14. 11. 8. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 115. LAT, LON: 16.7 53.9 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL112017 IRMA 09/04/17 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.80 4.5 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 21.9 41.0 to 7.4 0.57 1.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 51.4 0.0 to 147.0 0.35 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.5 33.3 to 3.1 0.92 2.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 115.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.16 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 37.3 30.0 to 128.0 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.6 to -2.7 0.44 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 8.4 -28.0 to 171.0 0.18 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 708.2 814.0 to -65.0 0.12 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 95.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 13.1% 15.3% 11.3% 9.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 20.4% 18.9% 14.0% 12.7% 10.5% 10.1% 7.8% 3.0% Bayesian: 20.4% 62.7% 43.2% 5.2% 4.4% 6.3% 0.5% 0.3% Consensus: 18.0% 32.3% 22.8% 9.1% 5.0% 5.5% 2.8% 1.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL112017 IRMA 09/04/17 18 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 1 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL112017 IRMA 09/04/2017 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 31 33( 54) 33( 69) 32( 79) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 47 61( 79) 59( 92) 65( 97) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 115 118 120 120 119 117 116 118 116 117 119 123 88 101 103 92 89 18HR AGO 115 114 116 116 115 113 112 114 112 113 115 119 84 97 99 88 85 12HR AGO 115 112 111 111 110 108 107 109 107 108 110 114 79 92 94 83 80 6HR AGO 115 109 106 105 104 102 101 103 101 102 104 108 73 86 88 77 74 NOW 115 106 100 97 96 94 93 95 93 94 96 100 65 78 80 69 66 IN 6HR 115 118 109 103 100 97 96 98 96 97 99 103 68 81 83 72 69 IN 12HR 115 118 120 111 105 101 100 102 100 101 103 107 72 85 87 76 73