* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * HARVEY AL092017 08/30/17 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 47 48 48 49 51 53 58 56 54 47 47 48 48 47 46 45 V (KT) LAND 45 47 41 36 32 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 45 46 42 36 32 28 27 27 27 27 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 27 24 16 17 21 11 27 24 25 19 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -3 0 0 0 1 0 0 -4 -6 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 218 232 232 203 222 234 229 225 223 212 245 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.1 28.5 28.1 28.3 28.5 29.6 29.7 29.7 29.9 30.1 30.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 152 142 137 139 143 161 163 163 166 170 169 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 128 121 115 117 120 136 136 134 133 135 134 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.8 -50.7 -50.7 -50.7 -50.8 -51.2 -51.5 -52.4 -53.2 -54.4 -55.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.5 0.9 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.5 1.6 1.5 1.3 1.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 5 4 8 9 5 9 2 3 0 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 48 44 42 39 40 40 45 43 43 44 44 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 23 22 22 21 22 21 21 24 20 16 10 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 36 25 17 36 28 2 16 10 13 7 47 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 24 18 7 29 37 28 25 22 33 13 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -3 1 2 -2 3 0 9 3 13 0 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 100 50 -13 -85 -153 -245 -369 -465 -567 -630 -599 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 28.7 29.3 29.9 30.5 31.1 32.3 33.7 34.9 35.8 36.3 36.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 93.9 93.5 93.2 92.9 92.6 91.5 90.1 88.6 87.2 86.0 84.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 7 7 7 8 9 8 6 6 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 39 43 13 3 3 4 5 5 5 5 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 55/ 5 CX,CY: 4/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 574 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 50.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 9. 12. 15. 17. 18. 19. 20. 19. 19. 18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 0. -2. -5. -7. -8. -10. -12. -14. -15. -16. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 8. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -2. -8. -14. -23. -24. -24. -24. -23. -23. -22. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 3. 5. 6. 8. 13. 11. 9. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 28.7 93.9 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092017 HARVEY 08/30/17 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.67 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 27.6 41.0 to 7.4 0.40 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 20.2 0.0 to 147.0 0.14 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 33.3 to 3.1 999.00 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.56 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 75.2 30.0 to 128.0 0.46 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.6 to -2.7 999.00 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 23.0 -28.0 to 171.0 0.26 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 279.4 814.0 to -65.0 0.61 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 28.1 95.0 to 0.0 0.70 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092017 HARVEY 08/30/17 00 UTC ## ## ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092017 HARVEY 08/30/2017 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 47 41 36 32 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 18HR AGO 45 44 38 33 29 25 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 12HR AGO 45 42 41 36 32 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 31 27 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT