* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HARVEY AL092017 08/26/17 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 115 116 116 112 106 94 85 79 73 70 69 69 68 68 62 59 50 V (KT) LAND 115 89 66 49 39 31 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 115 93 68 50 40 31 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 14 10 11 18 15 23 22 31 28 24 17 16 25 27 35 36 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 1 -2 -1 0 -3 -4 -2 -4 -4 -6 -3 -2 0 -5 -5 SHEAR DIR 219 256 265 233 235 245 211 228 214 232 228 271 266 287 274 305 297 SST (C) 29.8 30.1 30.1 30.0 30.0 29.9 29.9 30.1 30.4 30.5 30.5 30.5 30.4 30.3 30.3 30.3 30.3 POT. INT. (KT) 164 169 168 166 165 163 163 168 167 168 168 168 170 169 169 169 167 ADJ. POT. INT. 140 142 140 137 134 132 133 138 142 145 144 145 150 142 140 143 138 200 MB T (C) -50.5 -50.7 -50.9 -50.8 -50.6 -51.6 -51.1 -51.9 -51.7 -52.3 -52.1 -52.6 -52.4 -51.9 -52.1 -52.7 -52.4 200 MB VXT (C) 1.2 1.5 1.4 1.0 0.9 1.0 0.7 0.7 0.3 0.2 0.2 -0.2 0.0 0.4 0.7 1.2 0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 10 8 7 9 10 7 9 6 8 5 8 5 9 4 9 6 9 700-500 MB RH 67 66 70 71 69 65 60 59 57 52 55 53 57 54 59 60 63 MODEL VTX (KT) 28 25 27 27 24 22 21 21 20 22 23 23 19 17 13 11 8 850 MB ENV VOR 17 5 6 21 9 -2 39 33 42 8 3 -16 -5 -26 -24 -27 -17 200 MB DIV 56 17 9 29 32 31 68 11 28 14 38 9 21 -11 13 20 65 700-850 TADV 14 13 8 5 5 0 -5 0 -7 0 0 2 6 3 2 -3 3 LAND (KM) 25 -28 -80 -110 -139 -138 -108 -57 -25 -15 -26 -67 -95 -367 -333 -309 -357 LAT (DEG N) 27.8 28.2 28.6 28.8 29.0 28.9 28.7 28.4 28.4 28.6 28.9 29.4 29.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 96.8 97.1 97.4 97.6 97.8 97.9 97.7 97.3 96.8 96.4 96.0 95.8 95.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 4 3 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 3 7 5 4 5 2 HEAT CONTENT 34 43 37 9 6 7 11 47 46 50 52 30 5 5 5 5 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 7 CX,CY: -3/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 95 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 647 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. 1. 1. -1. -5. -13. -21. -28. -33. -37. -39. -41. -43. -45. -47. -47. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -4. -6. -8. -11. -12. -10. -9. -8. -5. -2. 1. 4. 5. 4. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. PERSISTENCE 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -2. -3. -2. -1. -0. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -1. -1. -4. -6. -9. -12. -14. -13. -13. -14. -19. -22. -27. -28. -31. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. -3. -9. -21. -30. -36. -42. -45. -46. -46. -47. -47. -53. -56. -65. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 115. LAT, LON: 27.8 96.8 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092017 HARVEY 08/26/17 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 20.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.87 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 21.6 41.0 to 7.4 0.58 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 25.8 0.0 to 147.0 0.18 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.4 33.3 to 3.1 0.79 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 115.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.16 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 23.7 30.0 to 128.0 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.6 to -2.7 0.44 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 28.6 -28.0 to 171.0 0.28 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 67.4 814.0 to -65.0 0.85 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 95.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 19% is 4.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 19.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 6.8% 9.2% 5.7% 1.5% 0.5% 0.8% 0.8% 0.0% Bayesian: 17.0% 4.2% 1.9% 4.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 14.4% 4.5% 2.5% 1.8% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092017 HARVEY 08/26/17 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092017 HARVEY 08/26/2017 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 31 0( 31) 0( 31) 0( 31) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 63 0( 63) 0( 63) 0( 63) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 115 89 66 49 39 31 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 18HR AGO 115 114 91 74 64 56 53 52 52 52 52 52 52 52 52 52 52 12HR AGO 115 112 111 94 84 76 73 72 72 72 72 72 72 72 72 72 72 6HR AGO 115 109 106 105 95 87 84 83 83 83 83 83 83 83 83 83 83 NOW 115 106 100 97 96 88 85 84 84 84 84 84 84 84 84 84 84 IN 6HR 115 89 80 74 71 67 64 63 63 63 63 63 63 63 63 63 63 IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT