* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KENNETH EP132017 08/23/17 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 56 51 46 43 36 33 30 27 22 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 60 56 51 46 43 36 33 30 27 22 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 60 55 51 47 43 37 32 27 23 19 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A SHEAR (KT) 11 13 16 21 23 28 31 23 18 18 21 23 27 32 31 37 N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 -4 -4 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 4 3 1 3 3 N/A SHEAR DIR 217 208 207 210 213 212 209 219 217 233 228 227 229 236 233 238 N/A SST (C) 24.3 23.6 23.5 23.4 23.2 22.7 22.6 22.5 22.5 22.6 22.7 22.9 23.2 23.7 23.3 23.3 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 106 98 97 96 93 87 86 84 84 85 86 89 92 96 93 90 N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.2 -52.3 -52.3 -52.7 -53.0 -53.1 -53.7 -54.1 -53.8 -54.0 -53.9 -54.3 -54.3 -54.1 -54.8 N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.1 0.9 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.0 0.0 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 N/A 700-500 MB RH 45 43 40 39 38 38 38 35 32 30 27 28 30 36 34 37 N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 18 17 17 16 16 15 17 16 15 13 10 7 6 4 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 5 3 -11 -3 -10 -30 -22 -26 -35 -32 -33 -54 -51 -50 -57 -80 N/A 200 MB DIV 10 13 12 -3 17 16 -1 2 5 7 13 0 4 11 22 15 N/A 700-850 TADV 11 10 10 7 7 8 6 4 4 5 5 3 2 2 1 3 N/A LAND (KM) 1908 1865 1826 1800 1779 1743 1667 1657 1645 1641 1666 1706 1754 1792 1627 1605 N/A LAT (DEG N) 22.2 23.1 24.0 24.8 25.6 26.9 27.9 28.6 29.2 29.8 30.3 30.8 31.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x N/A LONG(DEG W) 133.8 134.3 134.7 135.2 135.6 136.2 136.7 137.1 137.4 137.8 138.5 139.4 140.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 9 9 8 6 5 3 3 4 4 5 6 3 4 1 N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):335/ 10 CX,CY: -3/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 541 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 76.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -12. -15. -18. -20. -23. -26. -30. -33. -37. -40. -43. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -11. -15. -18. -20. -23. -27. -32. -38. -40. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. 7. 7. 6. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 2. 5. 9. 12. 14. 14. 12. 10. 8. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. -11. -12. -13. -15. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -7. -9. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -5. -8. -11. -15. -15. -16. -15. -14. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -4. -9. -14. -17. -24. -27. -30. -33. -38. -45. -52. -60. -68. -76. -88. -91. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 22.2 133.8 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP132017 KENNETH 08/23/17 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 38.2 30.0 to 135.0 0.08 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.17 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 9.8 -30.0 to 145.0 0.23 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 23.5 28.1 to 8.6 0.24 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 539.0 742.0 to -74.0 0.25 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.96 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.6 34.4 to 2.3 0.68 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 3.0 to 94.0 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 14.3 56.6 to 0.0 0.75 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.0 to -2.0 0.51 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 14.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 4.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132017 KENNETH 08/23/17 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##