* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NINE AL092017 08/17/17 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 38 41 43 46 50 56 61 66 69 69 72 74 80 83 88 90 V (KT) LAND 35 38 41 43 46 50 56 61 66 69 69 72 57 36 30 28 27 V (KT) LGEM 35 39 43 46 49 54 58 62 66 70 74 77 63 38 N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 14 12 12 15 16 14 17 11 9 8 10 13 14 15 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 -1 -1 0 0 1 0 3 4 2 2 3 -2 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 43 32 18 13 15 360 360 331 345 314 337 347 4 336 N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.6 29.0 29.2 29.2 29.4 29.1 29.0 28.6 28.8 29.0 29.4 29.4 29.9 30.6 N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 147 154 157 157 161 156 155 149 151 154 160 160 168 170 N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 147 154 157 157 161 156 155 149 151 154 160 159 161 169 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.3 -53.4 -53.6 -53.3 -53.4 -53.0 -52.8 -52.9 -53.1 -53.2 -53.1 -53.1 -53.0 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 11 11 11 13 12 13 12 11 10 10 9 10 10 N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 50 47 47 46 46 48 54 59 64 70 73 79 75 76 N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 12 12 11 12 12 10 10 9 8 8 6 6 4 5 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 43 47 48 50 63 63 68 63 65 68 26 38 13 32 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 0 3 12 9 15 9 -4 12 47 70 29 58 10 43 N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -3 -4 -2 -1 -2 2 -1 5 2 7 5 5 6 0 N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 697 535 389 290 284 344 238 227 342 323 60 81 -96 -125 N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 13.0 13.1 13.1 13.2 13.3 13.6 13.9 14.3 14.7 15.2 15.8 16.5 17.3 xx.x N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 55.0 56.6 58.3 60.0 61.6 65.1 68.8 72.7 76.5 80.2 83.5 86.3 89.1 xxx.x N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 15 16 17 16 17 18 18 19 18 17 15 14 10 6 N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 40 59 59 59 51 31 73 34 76 61 40 52 30 6 N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 576 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 59.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 7.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 8. 14. 19. 23. 26. 30. 35. 39. 40. 42. 41. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -8. -9. -13. -15. -18. -17. -17. -17. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 8. 11. 15. 21. 26. 31. 34. 34. 37. 39. 45. 49. 53. 55. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 13.0 55.0 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092017 NINE 08/17/17 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.73 4.2 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 20.3 41.0 to 7.4 0.61 2.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 53.6 0.0 to 147.0 0.36 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.7 33.3 to 3.1 0.32 0.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.28 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 120.3 30.0 to 128.0 0.92 0.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.6 to -2.7 0.61 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 7.8 -28.0 to 171.0 0.18 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 250.6 814.0 to -65.0 0.64 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 14.1 95.0 to 0.0 0.85 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 29% is 5.6 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.1% 17.7% 11.6% 8.8% 7.7% 11.5% 15.5% 29.5% Logistic: 7.5% 17.2% 13.2% 4.2% 1.4% 6.8% 8.7% 17.8% Bayesian: 2.3% 9.7% 6.5% 0.2% 0.2% 4.7% 6.7% 34.0% Consensus: 5.6% 14.8% 10.4% 4.4% 3.1% 7.7% 10.3% 27.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092017 NINE 08/17/17 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092017 NINE 08/17/2017 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 38 41 43 46 50 56 61 66 69 69 72 57 36 30 28 27 18HR AGO 35 34 37 39 42 46 52 57 62 65 65 68 53 32 26 24 23 12HR AGO 35 32 31 33 36 40 46 51 56 59 59 62 47 26 20 18 17 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 28 32 38 43 48 51 51 54 39 18 DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT